تأثیر شفافیت بانک مرکزی بر تلاطم نرخ ارز درکشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 3، دوره 29، بهار و تابستان 1401 - شماره پیاپی 23، مهر 1401، صفحه 72-109   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2022.70936.1083

نویسندگان

اسماعیل میرزائی¹؛ شهرام فتاحی^{* 2}؛ محمد شریف کریمی³

¹کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

²دانشیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و کار آفرینی، دانشگاه رازی،کرمانشاه، ایران

³دانشیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه رازی،کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

چکیده                                                                                      
از زمان فروپاشی نظام برتن وودز در سال 1973 و اتخاذ سیستم نرخ ارز­شناور، تلاطم نرخ ارز همیشه به عنوان یک موضوع اصلی و نگران­کننده پیش­روی گروه­های مختلفی از فعالان­ اقتصادی از جمله سیاست­گذاران، بانک­­­های ­مرکزی، دانشگاهیان و سرمایه­گذارهای فردی بوده است. از میان عوامل احتمالی که می­تواند نرخ ارز و به طور­کلی تلاطم نرخ ارز را در مسیرکاهشی قرار­دهد، کانال شفافیت بانک مرکزی است که افزایش آن در چند دهه گذشته یکی از مهم­ترین تحولات بانکداری مرکزی در سیاست­گذاری­های پولی بوده است. بنابراین این سؤال مطرح می­شود که شفافیت بانک مرکزی چگونه می­تواند بر تلاطم نرخ ارز تأثیر بگذارد. مهم­ترین استنباطی که از ادبیات گذشته پیرامون موضوع شفافیت بانک مرکزی می­شود این است که افزایش ارائه اطلاعاتی توسط بانک­های مرکزی در قالب اطلاع­­رسانی سیاست پولی، منجر به افزایش توانایی مردم در درک اهداف بانک مرکزی و بهبود پیش­ بینی­هایشان از سیاست­های پولی بانک مرکزی است که این امر از تغییر در مواضع سیاست بانک مرکزی در بی­ثبات­کردن بازارهای مالی از جمله بازار­ ارز جلوگیری خواهد کرد که البته این موضوع می­تواند نیازمند وجود یک بانک مرکزی مستقل باشد. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر سعی دارد با بکارگیری دو روش حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاح شده و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا  و به کمک داده­های ترکیبی برای دوره 1998-2019 و مبانی نظری مرتبط، به بررسی تأثیر شفافیت بانک مرکزی بر تلاطم نرخ ارز در کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک بپردازد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که شفافیت بانک مرکزی و استقلال بانک مرکزی از متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر تلاطم نرخ ارز هستند و با تلاطم نرخ ارز رابطه منفی و معنی­داری دارند. همچنین نتایج این مطالعه رابطه منفی و معنی دار درآمد نفتی و رشد اقتصادی با تلاطم نرخ ارز را تأیید می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شفافیت بانک مرکزی؛ استقلال بانک مرکزی؛ تلاطم نرخ ارز؛ کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک

مراجع

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