Investigating the Factors Affecting the Error of Predicting Iran Government Budget Expenditures

اقتصاد پولی مالی

Article 11, Volume 30, Issue 26, July 2023, Pages 339-372   

Document Type: Original Article

DOI: 10.22067/mfe.2023.77014.1196

Authors

Mehdi Fathabadi¹; Meysam Pashaee^{* 2}; Mosab Abdollahi Arani³

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firuzkoh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firozkoh, Iran.

²Ph. D Student in Economics, Firozkoh Unit, Islamic Free University, Firozkoh, Iran.

³Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The government budget is the largest and most important financial document of the country, it is expected every year. Unfortunately, the forecast error in budget expenditures and revenues has caused a budget deficit for the country in consecutive years. Therefore, in the present study, the factors affecting the error in forecasting government budget expenditures in the period 1360-96 have been investigated. For this purpose, a regression model has been used to examine the three models of cost credits, capital asset acquisition, and financial asset acquisition. The results of SURE model show that exchange rate variables and realized values of costs are effective in predicting all three cost variables and GDP is effective in forecasting cost credits and capital credits with coefficients of 1.201 and 1.662, i.e. when GDP Government spending and development credits are also increasingeffective in forecasting cost credits and capital credits with coefficients of 1.201 and 1.662, i.e. when GDP Government spending and development credits are also increasing

Keywords

Government Expenditures; Forecasting Error; Budget Deficit; Seemingly Unrelated Regression

References