Identifying the driving Factors of the Expansion and Future Growth of Urban Areas (Case Study: Expansion of Urban Areas of Zahedan)

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 4, Volume 21, Issue 1 - Serial Number 42, March 2023, Pages 142-105   

Document Type: case study

DOI: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.74275.1098

Authors

Ataollah Akbari¹; Mohammad Eskandari Sani^{* 2}; Morteza Esmaeilnejad²

¹PhD Candidate in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan Branch, Zahedan, Iran

²Associate Professor in Geography and Urban Planning, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran

Abstract

This study aimed to identify and evaluate the historical patterns of the urban development, and to simulate and predict the amount and method of development of Zahedan in future. It sought identify the intervening factors that determine the smart direction of urban areas and tried to answer this question: Will the development of urban areas of Zahedan be according to the planning patterns and in accordance with the population growth of the city? This study was done using archived data, remote sensing images of Landsat satellite for ten-year periods from 1991-2021, SLEUTH-3R model for seeing the growth of the urban areas in the past and forecast its future until 2051, ArcGIS, and Envi software. The results showed that the historical growth pattern of Zahedan had been based on the organic growth, closeness to roads, and the growth of urban areas in the form of edges. Moreover, the future development of the city will be internal and then the skirts of city. The results of the future development of Zahedan showed that the city will develop towards the west and some parts of the south, which would be suitable and reasonable considering the desirable lands in the west half and the size of the development in future. The results on the physical and demographic development shows decrease in in the population dense from 89 to 57 people per hectare. The issue indicates the more growth of physical dimension of the city than population growth. That is, the city will develop horizontally and dispersedly. Considering the results on the development of the city in the future, the best option for the development of Zahedan will be internal development or intermediate development, which will be on empty and barren lands of the city.

Keywords

City Growth; Modeling; Simulation; SLEUTH-3R Model; Zahedan

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