Projection of Precipitation using CMIP6 Models Until the End of the 21st Century in the Northwest of Iran

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 9, Volume 13, Issue 1 - Serial Number 49, February 2024, Pages 173-194   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2022.76646.1223

Authors

Behrooz Sari Sarraf¹; Hashem Rostamzadeh²; Nabi Mohamadi^{* 3}

¹Professor in Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

²Assistant Professor in Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

³PhD in Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

Precipitation is the main component of the hydrological cycle, which is very important in many studies, including those focusing on management of irrigation and drainage systems, crop performance, environmental issues, floods, droughts, etc. Therefore, this study eveluated seven GCMs models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) regarding the simulation and projection of precipitation changes in the northwest of Iran under three scenarios of SSP in three periods (2021-2050, 2051-2080, 2081-2100) and compared them to the historical period (2014-1985). The trend of precipitation changes was calculated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The Linear Scaling Bias Correction (LSBC) was used to downscaling the GCMs data and the validity of different models was evaluated using RMSE, MAE and R2 indices. The results of performance evaluation of CMIP6 models showed that among the studied models, MPI-ESM1-2-LR model with an average R2 of 0.86 and RMSE equal to 19.7 at the regional level were more accurate than other models in the simulation of precipitation. The results of projection also showed that precipitation according to SSP1-2.6 scenario will increase by 2.6% in the next three periods and on average in the end of 21st century and at most stations it is significant at the level of 0.01%. But according to SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the amount of precipitation will decrease by 14.5% and 3.6% in the end of 21st century, respectively, with the highest decrease being related to the rainy areas in the southwest of the region. In general, according to different scenarios, in most of the studied areas, the precipitation trend is decreasing until the end of 21st century, and it is necessary for officials and planners to adopt the required strategies to adapt to the resulting climate change.

Keywords

SSPs; CMIP6; Rain; Northwet; Climate Change

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