Forecasting the Vulnerability of Khash City Due to Storm Hazard by Gamble Method and Partial Series

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 13, Volume 13, Issue 3 - Serial Number 51, November 2024, Pages 339-366   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2023.81449.1337

Authors

Omid Piryan Kalat¹; Javad Jamshidzehi²; Keramatollah Ziari^{* 3}; Reza Shafie Kenari¹

¹MSc in Regional Planning, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

²MSc in Natural Environmental Hazards, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran.

³Professor in Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, Department of Human Geography and Planning , University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study aims to predict the vulnerability caused by hurricane crises and highlights the importance of effective crisis management in Khash City. Using a storm threshold speed of 15 m/s, the monthly, seasonal, and annual wind patterns of Khash City were analyzed with WRPLOT 8.0.2 software. To predict storm return periods for intervals ranging from 1 to 100 years, the Gumbel method and partial series method were applied based on the latest recorded data (1986–2018).
The analytical results revealed that storm return periods were predicted with greater intensity using the partial series method compared to the Gumbel method. For the 100-year return period, the Gumbel method estimated the most severe monthly storms with intensities of 29.1 m/s, while the partial series method predicted stronger storms with intensities of 32.2 m/s, 31.7 m/s, and 30.4 m/s.
The results suggest that the partial series method provides a more reliable prediction of hurricanes than the Gumbel distribution. This method's higher upper-limit estimates are particularly valuable for ensuring the safety of structures and for developing strategies to reduce human and financial losses. Consequently, the partial series method is recommended for hurricane prediction and optimal crisis management planning in Khash City.

Keywords

Hurricane Vulnerability Assessment; Crisis Management; Partial Series Method and Gumbel Distribution; Wind Speed Prediction; Risk Forecasting; Khash City

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