Flood Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic and HEC-HMS: the Case of Ojan Chay

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 4, Volume 13, Issue 2 - Serial Number 50, June 2024, Pages 65-91   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2023.82202.1359

Author

Marziyeh Esmaeilpour^*

Associate professor in Climatology, University of Maragheh,, Maragheh, Iran

Abstract

In the current study the flood risk in the Ojan Chay basin, which is situated in the province of East Azarbaijan, Bostan-Abad, was assessed. 16 spatial variables influencing the probability of flooding were taken into account, integrated, and examined using fuzzy logic within the geographic information system framework in order to extract the risk map. The application of the fuzzy gamma operator to the overlapping thematic maps revealed that about 4.8% of the basin's area falls into the high risk category. A considerable portion of these areas match the basin's major river beds and the surrounding terrain. The class with high risk is also located mostly in the vicinity of the mentioned class and includes more than 16.6% of the area of ​​the study area. Floods with a ten-year or longer return period may damage these areas. In the high risk class, there are roughly 2.3% of residential areas with an area of 11.1 hectares. However approximately 42.9% with an area of ​​35.9 hectares are located in the high risk class. The HEC-HMS model was employed in the second phase of the study to simulate rainfall-runoff and pinpoint sub-basins with high potential for runoff generation. The findings demonstrated that geomorphometric features and land cover have a significant impact on the flood hydrograph of the sub-basins and the basin's output. High slope, low permeability, a high concentration of rocky outcrops, impermeable surfaces, and the least amount of protective cover are the characteristics of sub-basins that exhibit high peaks. The upstream sub-basins with the highest peak discharge are 1, 3, 7, 11, and 12.

Keywords

Flood risk assessment; Flood hazard mapping; Geographic Information System (GIS); HEC-HMS model; Ojan Chay basin; Northwest Iran

References

Ajin, R. S., Krishnamurthy, R. R, Jayaprakash, M., & Vinod, P. G. (2013). Flood Hazard Assessment of Vamanapuram River Basin, Kerala, India: An Approach Using Remote Sensing & GIS Techniques. Advances in Applied Science Research, 4(3), 263–274. https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=2331182
Ali Mohammad,J.K., Aslam, I., & Khan, Z. (2011). Simulation of the Impacts of Landuse Change on Surface Runoff of Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan. Landscape and Urban Planning, 102(4), 271–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.05.006
Allafta, H., & Opp, C. (2021). GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Analysis for Flood Prone Areas Mapping in the Trans-Boundary Shatt Al-Arab Basin, Iraq-Iran, Geomatics. Natural Hazards and Risk,12(1), 2087-2116. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1955755
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (CRED, UNISDR)(2015). The Human Cost of Natural Disasters 2015: A Global Perspective, Report available at https://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-naturaldisasters-2015-global-perspective
Chen, Y., Liu, R.D., Barrett, D., Gao, L., Zhou, M., Renzullo, L., & Emelyanova, I. (2015). A Spatial Assessment Framework for Evaluating Flood Risk under Extreme Climates. Science of the Total Environment, 538, 512-523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.094
Dung, N.B., Long, N.Q., Tran, A.D., & Tuyet, M.D. (2021). Multi-Geospatial Flood Hazard Modelling for a Large and Complex River Basin with Data Sparsity: A Case Study of the Lam River Basin, Vietnam. Earth Systems and Environment, 6 (20), 715-731.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00215-8
Dung NB, Tuyet MD, Ahmad A, Long NQ. (2020). The Role Of Relative Slope Length In Flood Hazard Mapping Using Ahp And Gis (Case Study: Lam River Basin, Vietnam). Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 13(2): 118 126. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2020-48
Ganji, K., Gharechelou, S., & Ahmadi, A. (2022). Determining Effective Factors on Gorganrood River Flooding and Micro-Zoning of Flood Risk Analysis in Aq’Qala County Using AHP Method. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10(4), 25-46. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2021.68419.1011
Ghanavati, E., Karam, A., & Aghaalikhani, M. (2013). Flood Risk Zonation in the Farahzad Basin (Tehran) Using Fuzzy Model. Geography and Environmental Planning, 23(4), 121-138. [In Persian] https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20085362.1391.23.4.8.2
Hydrologic Engineering Center. (2013). HEC-GeoHMS, Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension. US Army Corps of Engineers.
Hydrologic Engineering Center. (2016). Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS. US Army Corps of Engineers.
Iwahashi, J., Pike, R.J. (2007). Automated Classifications of Topography from DEMs by an Unsupervised Nested-Means Algorithm and a Three-Part Geometric Signature.Geomorphology, 86(3-4), 409–440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.09.012
Jahanbakhsh Asl, S., Asad, M., & Akbari, E. (2016). The Potential Evaluation of Wind Power Plants by Using the Fuzzy- AHP Methods in GIS (Case Study: North East of IRAN).Journal of Geography and Planning, 20(56), 55-72. [In Persian]
https://geoplanning.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_4981.html
Kourgialas, N.N., Karatzas, G.P. (2011). Flood Management and a GIS Modelling Method to Assess Flood-Hazard Areas—A Case Study. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(2), 212-225. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.555836
Kumar, S., Gupta, S. (2016). Geospatial Approach in Mapping Soil Erodibility Using CartoDEM– A Case Study in Hilly Watershed of Lower Himalayan Range. Journal of Earth System Science, 125, 1463–1472. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0738-2
Lee, S. (2007). Application and Verification of Fuzzy Algebraic Operators to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping. Environmental Geology 52, 615–623. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0491-y
Liu, J.G., & Mason, P.J. (2009). Essential Image Processing and GIS for Remote Sensing. New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118687963
Luca, F., Conforti, M., & Robustelli, G. (2011). Comparison of GIS-based Gullying Susceptibility Mapping Using Bivariate and Multivariate Statistics: Northern Calabria, South Italy.Geomorphology, 134(3-4), 297-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.006
Mazidi, A., & Kooshki, S. (2015). Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Process and Estimate of Flood with HEC-HMSModel in Khorramabad Catchment Area. Geography and Development, 13(41), 1-10. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2015.2236
Mesri Alamdari, P. (2021). Spatial Analysis of Flood Hazard in Ajabshir Ghaleh Chay Catchment using GIS and HEC-HMS Model. Quantitative Geomorphological Research, 10(1), 93-111. [In Persian] https://www.geomorphologyjournal.ir/article_134562.html
Modaresi, F. & Araghinejad, Sh. (2017) Practical training of the hydrological modelling of the watershed in HEC-HMS and HEC-GeoHMS, Noavar publication.
Moradnezhadi, M., Jourgholami, M., & Malekian, A. (2015). Evaluating the HEC-HMS Hydrologic Model in Order to Simulating Flood Hydrograph in Forest Basin (Case Study: Kheyrud Forest). Forest and Wood Products, 68(3), 625-639. [In Persian]
https://doi.org/10.22059/jfwp.2015.55594
Nandalal, H.K., Ratnayake, U.R. (2011). Flood Risk Analysis Using Fuzzy Models. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 4, 128–139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01097.x
Qin C.Z., Zhu, A.X., Pei, T., & Li B.L., Scholten, T., Behrens, T., & Zhou, C.H. (2011). An Approach to Computing Topographic Wetness Index Based on Maximum Downslope Gradient. Precision Agric 12, 32–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-009-9152-y
Rahimzadeh, Z., & Habibi, M. (2018). Simulation of Hydrograph of Flood with Hydrological Model HEC-HMS and Prediction of Return Period in Kermanshah Ravansar Basin. Geography and Development, 16(53), 175-194. [In persian]
https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2018.4186
Rashetnia, S. (2016). Flood Vulnerability Assessment by Applying a Fuzzy Logic Method: A Case Study from Melbourne. Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering, College of Engineering and Science Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:132844539
Sarvar, H., & Kherizadeh Arouq, M. (2015) Feasibility of optimal physical development of Maragheh city using geographic information system (GIS). Research project, Maragheh University.
Sistani Badooei, M., Negaresh, H., & Fotoohi, S. (2017). Zoning Flood Hazard in the GabrikDrainage Basin. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 6(2), 163-182. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v6i2.59833
Sui, Y., Lang, X., & Jiang, D. (2018). Projected Signals in Climate Extremes Over China Associated with a 2°C Global Warming Under Two RCP Scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1): 678–697. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5399
Tella, A., & Balogun, A.L. (2020). Ensemble Fuzzy MCDM for Spatial Assessment of Flood Susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria. Nat Hazards, 104, 2277–2306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04272-6
Toya, H., Skidmore, M. (2007). Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters.Econ. Lett, 94 (1), 20–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.020
Yariyan, P., Avand, M., Ali Abbaspour, R., Torabi Haghighi, A., Costache, R., Ghorbanzadeh,O., Janizadeh, S., & Blaschke, T. (2020). Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using an Improved Analytic Network Process with Statistical Models. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 2282-2314. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1836036
Yousefi, H., Golshan, M., & Pirnia, A. (2018). Performance of HEC-HMS Hydrological Model in Simulation of Flood Hydrograph in Arid and Humid Watersheds. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 5(1), 319-330. [In Persian] https://doi.org/ 10.22059/ije.2018.240802.715
Zare, M., Azari, M., & Rezaei Arefi, M. (2024). Comparison of different multi-criteria decision-making methods for prioritization of flood source areas in Kashafrood basin. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2024.88777.1498