Investigation of Changes in the Amount and Distribution of Precipitation and Temperature in Iran and Their Effects on Extreme Events

فصلنامه آب و توسعه پایدار

Article 3, Volume 10, Issue 2 - Serial Number 28, September 2023, Pages 13-26   

Document Type: Applied Article

DOI: 10.22067/jwsd.v10i2.2301-1203

Authors

Ameneh Mianabadi^{* 1}; Kamran Davary²

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran.

²Professor, Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Global warming in recent decades has caused significant changes in precipitation and temperature, including changes in the mean and standard deviation of these variables and changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes (floods and droughts). Given the importance of these changes in water resources management, it is crucial to study the trends in these variables. In this study, in 12 selected stations in different climatic regions in Iran, the changes in monthly and annual precipitation and mean temperature during 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 were examined. The results of Mann-Kendall test showed in most stations precipitation had an increasing trend in the first period, and a decreasing trend in the second period; although in both periods the trend was not significant (Z<1.645). The mean temperature has increased in both periods, which in the second period has increased with a higher level of confidence (Z>2,576) and greater slope than in the first period. The average annual rainfall has decreased in most stations, and the average annual temperature has increased in all stations. The distribution of precipitation and temperature showed that in some stations, the probability of occurrence of extreme events and hot and cold periods in the second period has increased compared to the first period. In some other stations, droughts/floods are more/less likely to occur. This indicates that the activity of air masses affecting each station can be intensified or weakened due to climate change.

Keywords

Climate Change; Extremes; Flood; Drought; Water Resources

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