الگوی فضایی آسیب پذیری محیط زیست در ایران

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 1، دوره 13، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 51، آبان 1403، صفحه 1-34   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2023.84603.1417

نویسندگان

حبیب الله صادقی^{* 1}؛ افشین دانه کار^{* 2}؛ محمدجلال عباسی شوازی^{3، 4، 5}

¹دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

²استاد گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

³عضو آکادمی، موسسه جمعیت شناسی وین، اتریش

⁴استاد گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

⁵استاد مدعو، موسسه مطالعات جمعیتی، دانشگاه ملی استرالیا، کانبرا، استرالیا

چکیده

شناخت سطح خرد آسیب­پذیری محیط­زیست از لحاظ فنی و نظری به‌عنوان نقشه راه دقیق در پایداری محیط­زیست عمل می­کند. با­وجوداین ضعف داده و عدم قطعیت روشی فهم درست مسائل ناشی از آن را مغفول گذاشته است. مقاله پیش­رو با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره­ای کدنویسی شده گوگل­ارث­انجین (GEE) و روش خودهمبستگی فضایی گتیس در قالب نظریه­ی «آسیب­پذیری» به بررسی و تحلیل الگوهای فضایی آسیب‌پذیری محیط‌زیست 397 شهرستان ایران طی­سال­های 1390 تا 1400 می­پردازد. نتایج آزمون گتیس نشان دهنده توزیع نابرابر و الگوهای متنوع آسیب‌پذیری شهرستان‌های ایران در ابعاد مختلف ازجمله آلودگی هوا، گازهای گلخانه‌ای، تغییرات دما و بارش، کاهش آب‌های زیرزمینی، تهدید تنوع زیستی و فرسایش خاک، به‌ویژه در مناطق مرکزی، جنوب، شرق و نوار شمالی خواهد بود. به همین ترتیب، این پژوهش با تأکید بر نقش الگوهای فضایی متفاوت در ابعاد «حساسیت» و «قرار گرفتن در معرض خطر»، پیشنهاد می‌کند که سیاست‌گذاری‌های محیط‌زیستی در ایران باید با توجه به نابرابری‌های فضایی و متناسب با ویژگی‌های جمعیتی و بوم‌شناختی هر منطقه تنظیم شوند. این رویکرد می‌تواند به بهبود ظرفیت سازگاری و کاهش آسیب‌پذیری محیط­زیستی در مناطق بحرانی کمک کند. استفاده از تکنیک‌های الگوریتمی برای شاخص‌سازی آسیب‌پذیری محیط­زیستی و تلفیق داده‌های فضایی با تحلیل‌های جمعیتی، چارچوبی مؤثر برای پژوهش‌های آینده ارائه می‌دهد که می‌تواند در برنامه‌ریزی‌های ملی و منطقه‌ای به‌منظور کاهش فشارهای محیطی و بهبود پایداری محیط­زیستی به کار گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آسیب‌پذیری محیط‌زیستی؛ موتور گوگل‌ارث (GEE)؛ خودهمبستگی مکانی؛ راهبردهای پایداری؛ تفاوت‌های منطقه‌ای؛ ظرفیت سازگاری

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