Investigating climate change and transformation of natural components with emphasis on floods (Case study: Gorganrood watershed)

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 8, Volume 13, Issue 3 - Serial Number 51, November 2024, Pages 184-213   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2023.84657.1419

Authors

Abdolhafez panahi Panahi¹; Gholamreza Janbaz Ghobadi^{* 2}; Sadraddin Motavalli²; Shahryar khaledi³

¹phd of Geography and climatology ، General Directorate of Meteorology of Golestan Province.golestan,Iran.

²Associate Professor in Geography , Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor branch.

³Professor in Physical Geography, Department of Earth sciences, Shahid Beheshti University,Tehran,Iran.

Abstract

Changes in land use patterns, deforestation, inefficient management of dams, and unplanned housing developments have significantly increased flood vulnerability. The methodology of this study, considering the nature of the problem and the research objective, is descriptive-analytical and applied, with an emphasis on quantitative methods.
This research examines the regional changes in floods within the Gorganrood watershed using data from meteorological (synoptic) stations spanning a 30-year statistical period (1989–2018). Additional variables include land use, vegetation cover, topographic wetness index, slope, elevation, lithology, distance from the river, river density, erosion, geology, runoff, and simulated average rainfall data from the HadCM3 model under the SRA1B climate change scenario (2011–2045).
The study was conducted in two parts. In the first part, the LARS-WG model was applied for micro-scale climate prediction for both near and distant future periods. In the second part, the SWAT hydrological model was used to assess flood risk, and the Gorganrood watershed was zoned for flood risk probabilities using GIS software with the SWAT extension.
Daily rainfall and temperature values from synoptic stations were calibrated within the SWAT model. The results demonstrate that human interventions in main streams, urban and rural sprawl, construction of dams, degradation of pastures, and deforestation are among the primary factors contributing to the occurrence of sudden floods in the region.
The findings identified high-risk flood zones near the drainage network. The most influential factors contributing to flood risk include flow accumulation, elevation, soil water infiltration, distance from the drainage network, average annual rainfall, drainage density, land use, and slope. These factors have caused different hydrological responses to precipitation events across various sub-basins, influencing the characteristics of flash floods.
Furthermore, the analysis underscores the significant impact of human activities on both the quantity and quality of groundwater resources in the study area, emphasizing the urgent need for improved resource management.

Keywords

Flood Vulnerability Assessment; Hydrological Modeling; Land Use Change; Climate Change Impact; Watershed Management. Geospatial Analysis

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