Investigating the ways of Fragility of states in the Central Asia: Based on ‘’fuzzy logic’’ method

پژوهش ‎های جغرافیای سیاسی

Volume 8, Issue 3 - Serial Number 31, December 2023, Pages 111-130   

Document Type: مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/pg.2023.27206.0

Authors

Aboalghasem Shahryari^{* 1}; Sara Akbari¹; Mohadeseh Jazaei²

¹PhD Student of Political Science, & visiting professor of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Mashhad. Iran

²PhD Student of Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Mashhad. Iran

Abstract

The concept of the fragility of the state is one of the key words in the political sciences that were considered in the post-World War II period, and especially after the end of the Cold War. The Central Asia has also been one of the geographic regions that has sparked many views and analyzes on the states in the region and their fragility. But it should be noted that the paths that lead to the fragility of governments are not the same, and it is possible to draw different patterns from the ways leading to the fragility of the state. According to this the main research question are, what is the state of fragility in the Central Asia? What are the characteristics of paths that lead to the fragility of the Central Asiaern states? Considering the exploratory nature of the main research question, no hypotheses have been presented and interpreted for the results. To answer the questions, with the benefit of fuzzy logic, the top paths that are created by the combination of several factors are examined. The survey also shows that 10 governments in the Central Asia are fragile states and can identify four causal paths among them. Also, among the factors involved in these causal paths, the government's lack of legitimacy and the existence of conflicting groups can be identified as an unnecessary imperative for the fragile states of the Central Asia.

Keywords

Central Asia; government fragility; fuzzy logic

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