شبیه‌سازی تغییرات کربن آلی خاک‌های جنگلی در اثر تغییر اقلیم در ارتفاعات مختلف با استفاده از مدل Roth C

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 7، دوره 13، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 51، آبان 1403، صفحه 150-183   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2024.85968.1445

نویسندگان

مهران میثاقی^{* 1}؛ احمد گلچین²؛ محمدصادق عسکری³

¹دکتری مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

²استاد مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

³استادیار مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر ارتفاع و تغییر اقلیم بر ذخیره کربن آلی خاک‌های جنگلی شهرستان تالش در استان گیلان پرداخته است. نمونه‌های مرکب خاک از عمق ۰ - ۳۵ سانتی‌متری و از چهار محدوده ارتفاعی (۵۰۰-۱۰۰۰، ۱۰۰۰-۱۵۰۰، ۱۵۰۰-۲۰۰۰ و ۲۰۰۰-۲۵۰۰ متر بالاتر از سطح دریا) جمع‌آوری و غلظت کربن آلی و سایر ویژگی‌های خاک در آن‌ها اندازه‌گیری گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد با افزایش ارتفاع از سطح دریا، ذخیره کربن آلی خاک به دلیل افزایش بارندگی و کاهش دما، افزایش می‌یابد. بیشترین ذخیره مربوط به ارتفاعات ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۵۰۰ متر (۹۷.۴۶ تن در هکتار) و کم‌ترین آن مربوط به ارتفاعات ۵۰۰ تا ۱۰۰۰ متر (۴۴.۲۳ تن در هکتار) بود. مدل روتامستد (Roth C) به‌طور دقیق و با ضریب همبستگی و تبیین بالای ۰.۹۵، ذخیره کربن آلی خاک‌ها را تخمین زد. در شرایط فعلی، کربن ورودی و خروجی خاک در تعادل و تقریباً معادل ۱.۲۹ تا ۲.۷۶ تن در هکتار در سال است. طبق سناریوهای مدل‌سازی، کاهش بارندگی (۲.۱۵ میلی‌متر در هر ۱۰ سال) و افزایش دما (۰.۴ سانتی‌گراد)، باعث کاهش ۳۳.۵۴ تا ۴۰.۰۱ درصدی ذخیره کربن آلی در همه طبقات ارتفاعی، به‌ویژه در نقاط مرتفع‌تر خواهد شد. در این حالت، خاک به منبعی برای تولید گاز کربنیک تبدیل می‌شود. برعکس، افزایش بارندگی و کاهش دما باعث افزایش ۱۳.۸۴ تا ۱۸.۹۴ درصدی ذخیره کربن آلی در همه طبقات ارتفاعی، به‌ویژه در نقاط مرتفع‌تر خواهد شد. در این حالت، خاک به مخزنی برای نگهداری گاز کربنیک اتمسفری به شکل هوموس تبدیل می‌شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی دینامیک کربن آلی خاک، ابزارهای دقیقی برای پیش‌بینی و بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر این ذخایر، به‌ویژه در خاک‌های جنگلی هستند. این پژوهش تأکید می‌کند حفظ ارتفاعات جنگلی و مدیریت اقلیمی برای جلوگیری از کاهش ذخیره کربن و مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی، اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

کربن آلی خاک؛ شیب ارتفاعی؛ اکوسیستم‌های جنگلی؛ جذب کربن؛ مدل Roth C؛ سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم

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