An Econometric Model-Based Forecast of Nigeria’s Rice Self-Sufficiency

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 20 فروردین 1403   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2024.85180.1225

نویسندگان

R.Y. Abdulsalam^{* 1}؛ Mad Nasir Shamsudin²؛ Ahmad Hanis Izani Abdul Hadi³

¹Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness. Faculty of Agriculture. Federal University Dutse, Jigawa state, Nigeria

²Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia,

³Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

چکیده

Given the importance of pursuing a goal of rice self-sufficiency in Nigeria, it is of great interest to academics and policy-makers to investigate and understand future rice demands and supplies as they affect national self-sufficiency levels, as well as their implications for trade at the global level. This paper forecasts Nigeria's rice self-sufficiency levels which could facilitate policy directives on extra efforts required to achieve its goal through improved planning decisions. Using time series data covering the period from 1980 to 2018, this study adopted an econometric technique to model Nigeria's rice market which was estimated using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results revealed that Paddy own price elasticity was 0.206 and had no influence on paddy area harvested. On the other hand, the national policy of rice credit guarantee scheme variable displayed a positive relationship with paddy area harvested. Lagged yield and lagged area harvested had positive influences on yield and area harvested, respectively. This could mean that paddy producers were motivated by previous year’s yield levels and area harvested. The own-price elasticity of rice was -0.321 and its cross-price elasticity was 0.193, with wheat revealed to be a substitute. The obtained elasticities were then used to make a ten-year projection. Results suggested that by 2028, increasing rice production relative to dwindling imports will boost rice self-sufficiency level to 71%. However, the average yearly rice self-sufficiency level was 53%, requiring 3.85 million metric tonnes of rice imports. The projections revealed that Nigeria will not achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2028 unless intensive yield enhancing policy-supporting efforts are pursued.

کلیدواژه‌ها

elasticities؛ time series؛ projections؛ paddy

مراجع