The Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Afghanistan with Emphasis on the Helmand and Hariroud Basins

فصلنامه آب و توسعه پایدار

Article 5, Volume 11, Issue 1 - Serial Number 31, June 2024, Pages 35-48   

Document Type: Applied Article

DOI: 10.22067/jwsd.v11i1.2312-1294

Authors

Somayeh Parsa¹; Azar Zarrin^{* 2}; Abbas Mofidi²; Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari³

¹MSc, Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

²Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

³Postdoctoral Researcher of Climatology, Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

Abstract

One of the most challenging issues in water resource management is the impact of climate change on the water supply. It is necessary to examine the effects of climate change on Afghanistan, which is vital to Iran's water resources. To investigate the temperature and precipitation and their variability in Afghanistan and the two basins of Helmand and Hariroud, MSWX data was used from 1981 to 2020. To project the future climate, the output of five CMIP6 models was used for the near future (2026-2050). To reduce the uncertainty of individual models, a multi-model ensemble was generated. The area-averaged precipitation trend showed that the precipitation in Afghanistan, Helmand, and Hariroud basins has decreased by 11.2, 12.2, and 12.3 mm/decade, respectively. The area-averaged temperature has increased by 0.43, 0.45, and 0.57 oC/decade over Afghanistan, Helmand, and Hariroud basins, respectively. The results showed that the temperature in all three investigated regions will have a positive anomaly in the near future under SP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. On the other hand, the precipitation anomaly will be negative under SSP2-4.5 in the northern regions of Afghanistan and the two studied basins. The entire area of Afghanistan and two basins will experience a negative anomaly of precipitation under SSP5-8.5.

Keywords

CMIP6-MME; Precipitation Changes; Multi-Model Ensemble; Afghanistan

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