پیش‌بینی و تحلیل احتمال وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی و کمبود آب در یزد

مهندسی عمران فردوسی

مقاله 2، دوره 38، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 49، فروردین 1404، صفحه 29-48   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jfcei.2024.88585.1306

نویسندگان

محمدرضا گودرزی^* ؛ مریم صباغ زاده

مدیریت منابع آب، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

شهر یزد از دیرباز به دلیل اقلیم گرم و خشک با مشکل کم‌آبی مواجه بوده است و همواره مدیران منطقه تلاش کرده‌اند از طرق مختلف آب مورد نیاز را تامین کنند. این مطالعه با تعریف شاخص کمبود آب بر اساس عرضه و تقاضای آب در 12 سال گذشته و پیش‌بینی آن برای 20 سال آینده با استفاده از روش LSTM به بررسی این موضوع پرداخته است.با توجه به نتایج، در فصل تابستان میزان مصرف آب بیشتر از سایر فصول بود. لذا به بررسی اثر تغییرات آب و هوا بر روی کمبود آب پرداخته شد. بدین منظور دما و بارش آینده با مدل اقلیمی HadGEM3-GC31-LL و با سه سناریوی SSP126، SSP245 و SSP585 که به ترتیب سناریوهای خوش بینانه، متوسط و بدبینانه هستند، پیش‌بینی گردید. سپس، 81 حالت مختلف با توجه به تغییرات دما، بارش و کمبود آب تدوین شده و احتمال وقوع هرکدام با استفاده از احتمال شرطی محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که با وجود پیش‌بینی افزایش بارش سالانه تا 77% در سناریوی خوش بینانه و تا بیش از 90% در دو سناریوی دیگر، در آینده احتمال وقوع کم‌آبی شدید بیشتر خواهد بود. لذا تصمیم گیرندگان این منطقه همواره باید به فکر راه‌هایی جهت کاهش مصرف و افزایش تامین آب باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شاخص کمبود آب؛ تغییراقلیم؛ LSTM؛ احتمال شرطی

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