Evaluation of Drought Risk and Its Consequences for the Sustainability of Rural Tourism: A Case Study of Torshiz

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Volume 14, Issue 2 - Serial Number 54, June 2025, Pages 173-198   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2025.87795.1479

Authors

Fahimeh Jafari¹; khadijeh Bouzarjomehri^{* 1}; Hasan Faraji Sabokbar²; Hamdollah Sojasi Qeydari¹

¹Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

²Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran

Abstract

 Rural tourism is one of the most important economic activities, playing a significant role in reducing unemployment, increasing income, and promoting rural sustainability. However, this industry is highly sensitive to climatic hazards, especially drought, which can have negative and potentially irreversible impacts on rural tourism destinations. This study aims to investigate the effects of drought hazards on the sustainability of tourism destination villages in the Torshiz region. In this study, monthly rainfall data from eight synoptic stations over the 2000–2020 period were used to assess regional drought conditions. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated using DRINC software. Subsequently, annual drought maps were produced to examine temporal drought trends over the studied years. The obtained SPI values indicated that the study area experienced drought conditions during the twodecade period. A researcher-made questionnaire was employed to investigate the impacts of drought on rural tourism destinations. Opinions were collected from 30 professionals, including local experts, professors, and doctoral students specializing in rural tourism and hazards. A snowball sampling technique was used to select participants. The MEREC method was then applied to prioritize the research components. The results of the SPI calculations indicated that the study area experienced mild but recurrent drought conditions during the 2000– 2020 period. The MEREC model results showed that among the factors affecting the impacts of drought (socio-cultural, economic, physicalinfrastructural, and environmental), economic factors (with a weight of 0.2517) and environmental factors (with a weight of 0.2505) had the greatest impact on the sustainability of tourism destination villages.
 Extended Abstract
Introduction
Rural tourism, a sub-branch of tourism, emerged as a socio-recreational activity in Europe during the second half of the 18th century. Subsequently, in the 19th and 20th centuries, the development of railway transportation facilitated access to rural tourism destinations. This period witnessed a significant increase in international tourism demand for rural destinations, gradually paving the way for sustainable tourism development. While rural tourism destinations can have both positive and negative impacts in the aforementioned areas, this industry is one of the most vulnerable to hazards. Various threats and risks can destabilize tourism.
Among natural hazards, drought is one of the most significant and ancient phenomena that humans have been familiar with since ancient times. This phenomenon is more complex than other natural disasters and affects a larger segment of society. Due to various reasons, humans cannot accurately predict many events. Uncertainty is always present, and therefore, risk is inevitable.
Tourism, due to its sensitive nature, is particularly vulnerable to the increasing occurrence of extreme events such as drought, which can negatively affect a destination. Drought has both direct and indirect effects on tourism and can occur throughout the year. Consequently, comprehensive assessments of the impacts of drought on tourism, along with its direct inclusion in drought management strategies, are fundamentally essential, although they have not been commonly conducted in relation to tourism until now.
Given the significant negative impacts and damages that environmental hazards, especially droughts, can inflict on the tourism sector—particularly in rural areas where the local economy is reliant on tourism—this study aims to investigate the effects of drought on the sustainability of rural tourism destinations. The findings of this research can be used to inform planning for risk management and the development of rural tourism in the Torshiz region.
Material and Methods
This research is applied in nature and is conducted using a descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected through documentary and field (questionnaire) methods. Due to the lack of sufficient data in all the studied counties, and in order to perform zoning based on the SPI index, monthly precipitation data from 8 synoptic stations in the provinces of Razavi Khorasan, Southern Khorasan, and Shahrood County were used for the statistical period from 2000 to 2020.
Drought analysis of the study area was conducted based on monthly precipitation data obtained from the National Meteorological Organization. The DRINC software was used to calculate the SPI. Finally, the corresponding zoning maps were drawn using ArcGIS 10.6.1. Furthermore, after assessing the drought hazard situation in the study area, a researcher-made questionnaire administered to 30 experts was used to examine the effects of drought on the sustainability of rural tourism destinations in the Torshiz region. The research samples were selected using the snowball sampling method. Subsequently, the MEREC weighting method was used to prioritize the effects of drought on rural tourism destinations. 
 Results and Discussion
According to the results of the SPI index for the decade from 2000 to 2010, and based on the standard precipitation index divisions, a drought occurs when the SPI is less than -0.99. Therefore, the SPI value at all stations was negative in 2008 and 2009, and all stations except Tabas and Boshrooyeh had an SPI not exceeding -2, indicating a severe drought in the study area.
Moreover, drought occurs when the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) exhibits negative sequences. When SPI values reach or fall below -1, drought conditions intensify. The positive trend of the SPI indicates the end of the drought period. Therefore, the findings show that the study area experienced slightly moist conditions only in 2009–2010 during the statistical period of 2000–2010, and in other years (2000–2009), it faced mild drought conditions. The continuation of this drought trend can have irreversible impacts on rural tourism destinations in the Torshiz region.
The results of the SPI index for the years 2010 to 2020 indicate that the SPI values were negative in most years and stations. Given that a drought occurs when the Standardized Precipitation Index exhibits negative sequences, the findings suggest that the study area experienced mild drought conditions.
The results of the SPI index zoning in the study area indicate that the region experienced mild to severe droughts during the period from 2000 to 2020. Overall, the SPI values show that in most stations within the study area and in most years, the SPI values were less than -0.99, indicating persistent mild drought in the region.
To assess the impacts of this hazard on rural tourism destinations, a questionnaire was distributed to 30 experts, faculty members, and doctoral students in the fields of tourism and hazards. Subsequently, the MEREC weighting method was employed to prioritize the impacts of drought on the sustainability of rural tourism destinations in the study area. The final results of this model indicate that among the individual-social, economic, physical-infrastructural, and environmental impacts, the first and second ranks were assigned to the economic and environmental impacts, respectively. In other words, the drought hazard has the greatest impact on the economy and then the environment of the villages in the study area, thus leading to the instability of rural tourism destinations.
Furthermore, based on the analysis of the components, it can be concluded that the drought hazard has the greatest impact on reducing employment opportunities in the tourism sector, decreasing agricultural and horticultural production, bankrupting rural entrepreneurial activities, destroying rural farms and orchards, and reducing the income of employees (directly and indirectly) in the tourism sector.
Conclusion
The results of the SPI index indicated that the study area has been experiencing drought conditions. Additionally, the impacts of drought on rural tourism destinations in the Torshiz region were investigated. The effects of drought on the sustainability of rural tourism were examined through four influencing factors (economic, socio-individual, physical-infrastructural, and environmental) and 43 components. The results showed that among the four dimensions, drought had the greatest impact on the economic and then the environmental aspects of rural tourism.
These factors exert long-term negative impacts on rural tourism, particularly those activities reliant on geographical assets and scenic landscapes. The results highlight that drought significantly affects employment opportunities in the tourism sector. Consequently, agricultural production declines, vegetation cover is degraded, and rural farms and orchards are threatened, undermining the potential for agricultural tourism. 




 

Keywords

Rural Tourism Sustainability; Drought Risk Assessment; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); Tourism Vulnerability Analysis; Torshiz Region

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