| The Anthropogenic factors have led to land-use change, forest destruction, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. These changes are the driving forces of global warming and long-term droughts, leading to water stress and ecosystem instability. Iran, which has a dry and semi-arid climate, has few forested areas. Zagros region with its oak forests is one of its reserves. These forests have been destroyed since 2008 because to drought. In this study, the trends in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation levels in Zagros were investigated. Next, their effects on river flow were evaluated. We used data on precipitation, temperature, discharge, and MODIS satellite images from to 2000-2020. Trends in temperature, precipitation, land cover, and discharge were calculated using the Pettitt test. Pearson's correlation test was used to evaluate the effects of different parameters on the base flow. Pettitt's test was used to determine trends in NDVI, LST, TCI, and VCI indices. The findings indicated that the VCI and TCI indices in the forest area of Khuzestan province did not show significant change within 2000-2020 compared to that of 2007. It was observed that both air temperature and LST increased by approximately 1°C. The NDVI revealed a considerable decline in the water body, particularly in areas with sparse and dense vegetation. All of these have led to reduced carbon sink and decreased runoff and soil degradation volumes. Therefore, the synergism of human activities, destruction of vegetation, increase in temperature, long-term droughts, and a decrease in river base flow leads to environmental instability, changes in economic and social structure, and increases in poverty and climatic migrations. |
