Futures Study of the Development of informal Settlements based on Scenario Writing (Case Study: Tehran Metropolis)

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 8, Volume 20, Issue 4 - Serial Number 41, December 2022, Pages 314-287   

Document Type: case study

DOI: 10.22067/jgrd.2023.79420.1208

Authors

Behrang Khakparaghi¹; Gholamreza Latifi^{* 2}; Varaz Moradi Masihi³

¹PhD Candidate in Urbanism, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

²Professor of Urban Planning, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

³Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Since the world has changed drastically in various issues, the development and expansion of informal settlements have also been changed. The formation and typology process of informal settlements has changed and become more complex. The situation necessitates futures study on the development of informal settlement. Using futures study theory, this study investigated into the development of informal settlements and tried to present possible futures scenarios in 2031 horizon. The possible scenario will be on controlling the expansion and development of the settlements. The data of the descriptive-analytical study were obtained through field and documentary studies. Cross-effects analysis method and scenario wizard software were used to analyze the variables. Using the options of scenario wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 4 static scenarios, and 5 critical scenarios were extracted. The results showed that the status of 27% of informal settlements in the futures will be favorable and 67% will be static and critical. Tehran metropolis will face with three category of scenarios on the development of informal settlements in the futures. The most suitable scenario category is the first one. The category is based on the design and suitable impact of policies and programs for providing housing, and for recognizing informal ownership, its complete control, planning based on the development of settlements to enhance the safety of the neighborhoods, and establishing effective communication between the councils and people to solve residents’ problems. The solutions for promoting the development of informal settlements are: making the ownership of lands formal, establishing an organization for organizing informal settlements to reduce the multiplicity of administrative works and lack of coordination, and creating inexpensive housing.

Keywords

Futures Study; Informal Settlement; Scenario Writing; Tehran Metropolis; MICMAC

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