Advanced mathematical modeling and prognostication of regulated spatio-temporal dynamics of monkeypox

Iranian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Optimization

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 20 شهریور 1403

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/ijnao.2024.89077.1484

نویسندگان

mohamed baroudi^{* 1}؛ IMANE SMOUNI¹؛ HICHAM GOURRAM¹؛ ABDERRAHIM LABZAI²؛ MOHAMED BELAM¹

¹Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC Research Team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologie, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Khouribga Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco.

²Laboratory of Analysis Modeling and Simulation, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco.

چکیده

This study explores a continuous spatiotemporal mathematical model to illustrate the dynamics of monkeypox virus spread across various regions, considering both human and animal hosts. We propose a comprehensive strategy that includes awareness campaigns, security measures, and health interventions in areas where the virus is prevalent. The goal is to reduce transmission between humans and animals, thereby decreasing human infections and eradicating the virus in animal populations. Our model, which integrates spatial variables, accurately reflects the geographical spread of the virus and the impact of interventions, followed by the implementation and analysis of an applicable optimal control problem. Optimal control theory methods were applied in this work to demonstrate the existence of optimal control and the necessary conditions for optimality. We conduct numerical simulations using Matlab with the Forward-Backward Sweep Method, revealing the efficiency of strategies focused on protecting vulnerable populations, preventing contact with infected individuals and animals, and promoting the use of quarantine facilities as the most effective means to control the spread of the monkeypox virus. Additionally, the study examines the socio-economic impacts of the virus and the benefits of timely intervention. This approach provides valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials in managing and controlling the spread of monkeypox.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Monkeypox؛ Optimal control؛ Spatio-trmporal Model؛ Mathematical Model؛ optimization