An Analysis of Drought and Its Impact on Agricultural Economy and Rural Migration (Case Study: Abarkouh County in 1996-2005)

Journal of Research and Rural Planning

مقاله 5، دوره 2، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 4، اسفند 2013، صفحه 153-177   

نوع مقاله: علمی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jrrp.v2i4.20544

نویسندگان

Hojat Rezaie^* ؛ Behroz Mohamadi Yeganeh

چکیده

Potential environmental factors such as topography, slope, temperature, precipitation, water and land capacity can have a significant impact on the volume of migration and evacuated villages. Society’s disability due to various structural reasons, the lack of ability to deal with natural factors such as drought, floods and earthquakes, and finally, overcome natural conditions and unfavorable factors have been forced to relocate and to leave their settlements. Research methods are descriptive - analytical and field data collection including a library and we tried to deal with the effects of drought on the rural economy and immigration. The study population comprised 35 villages Abarkouh township. For data analysis, we used inferential statistics (Pearson correlation, regression analysis, one-sample T-test and factor analysis) also to monitoring drought valid Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). SPI results of the study show that the city faced many years of drought. In addition, the Kendall correlation and factor analysis indicated that the drought could crop yield loss, caused instability of the rural economy in this township. Single-sample T-test results of the regression analysis also suggests that the variable had impact of drought on Rural – Urban migration in this township.Single-sample T-test results of the regression analysis also suggests that the variable had impact of drought on Rural – Urban migration in this township.

کلیدواژه‌ها

drought؛ rural migration؛ Rural economy؛ Abarkouh؛ SPI