Review of the prediction power of Altman and Ohlson Models in predicting bankruptcy of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 9، دوره 16، شماره 28، اسفند 1388   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v16i28.2739

نویسندگان

قدیری مقدم قدیری مقدم^* ؛ غلامپور فرد غلامپور فرد؛ نصیر زاده نصیر زاده

چکیده

Current collapses of big companies and the worse fluctuations of the financial markets have evoked the awareness of the stakeholders and managers to utilize suitable tools to predict the financial distress of companies. One of such tools is the application of financial ratios as independent variables and developing models to predict bankruptcy issue. The objective of this study is first to test the prediction power of original Altman (1983) and Ohlson (1980) models on the dataset of Iranian listed companies and secondly by applying Multiple Discriminant Analysis (i.e. MDA) and Logit Analysis statistical techniques on the same dataset, develop a suitable prediction model for bankruptcy of listed companies in the economic environment of Iran. It was finally concluded that both original Ohlson bankruptcy prediction model in 1980 without any modification of multipliers and coefficients and Logistic regression technique showed better prediction results than original Atman model in 1983 or Discriminant analysis technique.