بررسی آثار اجرای سیاست های افق چشم انداز 1410 انرژی های تجدیدپذیر در سیستم تولید هیبرید شرکت برق منطقه ای خراسان

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 23، شماره 11، مرداد 1395، صفحه 48-88   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v23i11.40810

نویسندگان

مهدی قائمی اصل^{* 1}؛ مصطفی سلیمی فر²؛ مصطفی رجبی مشهدی³؛ محمدحسین مهدوی عادلی²

¹استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

²دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

³دانشکده مهندسی برق و مهندسی پزشکی دانشگاه صنعتی سجاد و معاون برنامه ریزی و تحقیقات شرکت برق منطقه‌ای خراسان

چکیده

در این پژوهش با بررسی ویژگی های اقلیمی منطقه خراسان و مجاورت این منطقه با استان های کشور (سمنان، سیستان، یزد و مازندران) و کشورهای خارجی (ترکمنستان و افغانستان)، در کنار بررسی شرایط فنی-اقتصادی تولید برق هیبرید فسیلی-تجدیدپذیر، تأثیر اجرای سیاست های افق چشم انداز 1410 انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر برق منطقه ای خراسان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج شبیه سازی سیستم تولید نشان می دهد اجرای این سیاست ها، حجم بهینه صادراتی بین منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای 62/18 تراوات ساعتی را به دنبال خواهد داشت که 32/2 تراوات ساعت از این بهینه صادراتی به دلیل اجرای سیاست-های افق چشم انداز ایجاد خواهد شد. این افزایش 14 درصدی بهینه صادراتی بین منطقه ای و فرامنطقه-ای، ایجاد 5000 شغل در منطقه خراسان و افزایش قیمت تمام شده 32 درصدی را نیز به همراه دارد، ولی تأثیر چندانی بر کاهش انتشار آلاینده زیست محیطی نخواهد داشت. علت عدم کاهش قابل توجه حجم آلاینده، محدود بودن توان تجدیدپذیر ورودی به سیستم تولید و علت افزایش قابل توجه قیمت نیز هزینه سرمایه گذاری بالای تولید برق خورشیدی و بادی است که حمایت مالی جدی از پروژه های فنی-مهندسی بادی و خورشیدی و تسهیم هزینه تولید با مشترکان را می طلبد. از سوی دیگر، افزایش ظرفیت-های تولید به حداکثر پتانسیل، به‌منظور مقابله با ماهیت نوسانی تولید تجدیدپذیر، راه کاری اساسی برای توسعه حقیقی تولید برق تجدیدپذیر به شمار می رود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شبیه سازی سیستم برق منطقه ای؛ تولید هیبرید فسیلی-تجدیدپذیر؛ آینده پژوهشی سیستم قدرت

مراجع

[1] Abdi, Hamdi, Hosseinzadeh Khonakdari, T., Zakeri, oven, Razmara, ancient Abbasi, Seyed Hassan Hashemi cotton skew, SE. (2011). Feasibility of 10-megawatt wind farm MoravehTappeh, Journal of Energy, Vol. XIV, No. 37. (in persian)

[2] Alberta Innovates – Technology Futures (AITF). (2011). Energy Storage: Making Intermittent Power Dispatchable, Final Report, Oct 27th, 2011.

[3] Annual Review 2012. (2012). Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran. (in persian)

[4] Eslamloyian, K. and Astadzad, A. H. (2012). determine the optimal share of renewable energies in a model of sustainable development: the case of Iran, Journal of Environmental Economics and Energy, Vol. II, No. 5. (in persian)

[5] Bilgen, S., Keles, S., Kaygusuz, A., Sari, A. and Kaygusuz, K. (2008). Global warming and renewable energy sources for sustainable development: a case study in Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 12, Issue 2, February 2008, PP 372–396.

[6] Bohn, R. E., Caramanis, M. C., & Schweppe, F. C. (1984). Optimal pricing in electrical networks over space and time. The Rand Journal of Economics, 360-376.

[7] Caballero, F., Sauma, E., Yanine, F. (2013). Business optimal design of a grid-connected hybrid PV (photovoltaic (- wind energy system without energy storage for an Easter Island’s block, Energy 61 (2013) 248-261.

[8] Connolly, D., Lund, H., Mathiesen, B.V., Pican, E., Leahy, M. (2012). the technical and economic implications of integrating fluctuating renewable energy using energy storage, Renewable Energy, 43 (2012) 47-60.

[9] Detailed statistics for the power production industry 2012 (For managers). (2013). Department of Energy, the holding company tavanir, Vice President of Human Resources and Research, Office of Information and Statistics, Department of Statistics and information science. (in persian)

[10] Emami Meybodi, A. and Haideri, K. (2012). The conversion of a simple gas turbine plants (SCGT) on the combined cycle (CCGT) and its impact on the consumption of fossil fuels, Journal of Economic Research (Research, Development and Sustainable Development), Vol. XII, No. 3. (in persian)

[11] Hamed, Mohammad sadegh, Habibi, Manuchehr. (2005). on the power industry in Iran, company research, education and electricity productivity of Tehran (tab niroo), Tehran. (in persian)

[12] Henning, H.M. and Palzer, A. (2014). A comprehensive model for the German electricity and heat sector in a future energy system with a dominant contribution from renewable energy technologies, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30. (2014). 1003–1018.

[13] Lund, H. (2014). Advanced Energy Systems Analysis Computer Model, Documentation Version 11.4, Aalborg University, Denmark.

[14] Kanase Patil, A. B., R. P. Saini, M. P. Sharma, “Sizing of integrated renewable energy system based on load profiles and reliability index for the state of Uttarakhand in India,” Renewable Energy, vol. 36, pp. 2809-2821, 2011.

[15] Ketabdari, MJ and Ahmedi, M. E. (2011). Feasibility study of energy absorption by numerical modeling of ocean waves on the southern coast of Iran, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol. XVIII, No. 60. (in persian)

[16] Khorasan Regional Electricity Company. (2012). report on the development of renewable energy power company, Khorasan, Mashhad, release date: November 19, 2012. (in persian)

[17] Kowalski, K.; Stagl, S.; Madlener, R. and Omann, I. (2009). Sustainable energy futures: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis, European Journal of Operational Research journal, Volume 197, Issue 3, 16 September 2009, PP 1063–1074 .

[18] Liu, W., Hu, W., Lund, H., Chen, Z. (2013). Electric vehicles and large-scale integration of wind power – The case of Inner Mongolia in China, Applied Energy, 104 (2013) 445–456

[19] Mahmoudi, M., behboodi, MH, Sadigh Zibari, S. Haditha. (2008). the role of nanotechnology in the construction industry to reduce environmental pollution, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. I, No. 3 (s 38). (in persian)

[20] Martin, J. I. S., Zamora, I., Martin, J. J. S., Aperribay, V., Eguia, P. (2010). Hybrid fuel cells technologies for electrical microgrids, Electric Power Systems Research, 80 (2010), 993–1005.

[21] Namvar Bahraghani, B., Mr Shafiei, Mohammad; Moradi Dalvand, M., Ahmadian, M. (2012). determine the optimal size of the market in an interactive Ryzshbk•h to supply electricity and heat charge Ryzshbk•h to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, Journal of Engineering and energy management, Vol. II, No. 3 (row 5). (in persian)

[22] Mandil, C. “Oil crises and climate challenges-30 years of energy use in iea countries,” International Energy Agency, 2004.

[23] Mostofi, F., Shayeghi, H. and Kazemi Kargar, H. (2012). Potential assessment and design of renewable energy hybrid system to provide electricity for water pumping station site MeshkinShahr, Journal of Energy, Vol. XV, No. 43. (in persian)

[24] Moeni, Sam; Javadi, S., Kokabi, M. And Dehghan Manshadi, M. (2010). Estimation of solar radiation using an optimization model, Journal of Energy, Vol. XIII, No. 34. (in persian)

[25] Munasinghe, Mohan. (2009). Sustainable Development:Basic Concepts And Application To Energy, Munasinghe Institute For Development (Colombo, Sri Lanka)

[26] Paytakhti Oskuei, Ali and Nahidi, Mohammad. (2007). Environmental taxes (green taxes): theoretical, experience, Sixth Conference of Agricultural Economics, Mashhad, Agricultural Economics Association of Iran, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, pp. 1-17. (in persian)

[27] Østergaard, P. A. (2010). Regulation strategies of cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) plants and electricity transit in Denmark, Energy 35, (2010) 2194-2202.

[28] Paytakhti Oskuei, Ali and Nahidi, Mohammad. (2007). Environmental taxes (green taxes): theoretical, experience, Sixth Conference of Agricultural Economics, Mashhad, Agricultural Economics Association of Iran, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, pp. 1-17. (in persian)

[29] Perkovic, L., Silva, P., Ban, M., Kranjcevic, N., Duic, N. (2013). Harvesting high altitude wind energy for power production: The concept based on Magnus’ effect, Applied Energy, 101 (2013) 151–160.

[30] Pereza, I. O. and Østergaard, P. A. (2013). the influence of an estimated energy saving due to natural ventilation on the Mexican energy system, Energy 3 (2013), 1-12.

[31] Rahimi, Abdorahim, Saghafi, Majid, and Sarvghady, Zahra. (2008). investigated the use of renewable energy technology in the construction of a unit for Culture and Education, Mechanical Engineering Magazine, Issue 61, pp. 38-52. (in persian)

[32] Rahimi, N. (2005). Indicators for sustainable energy development in Iran, the Fourth National Energy Congress, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran's National Committee for Energy, Power and Energy Deputy Minister of Energy, pp. 1-24. (in persian)

[33] Renewable Energy Organization of Iran (SUNA). (2007). Report of potential biomass sources in Iran, Ministry of Energy, and Department of Energy. (in persian)

[34] Rostami, Soraya, Haghparast Kashani, A., Larry, HR. (2013). study estimated the cost of electricity from wind power plants, solar and biogas, National Energy Association Conference, Tehran, Iran Energy Research. (in persian)

[35] Shaditalab, Jaleh and Nayehdor, Mahdi. (2009). Analysis of factors affecting the adoption of domestic solar water heaters in rural areas - a case study Bardaskan city, autumn and winter, No. 36, pp. 67-88. (in persian)

[36] Sharifi, Alimorad; Kiani, G. and khoshakhlagh, rahman and Tudeshki Bagheri, Mohammad Mehdi. (2013). Evaluation of alternative renewable energy instead of fossil fuels in Iran: an optimal control approach, Journal of Economic Modeling Research, Vol. III, No. 11. (in persian)

[37] Suberua, M. Y., Mustafa, M.W., Bashir, N., Muhamad, N.A., Mokhtar, A.S. (2013). Power sector renewable energy integration for expanding access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25 (2013), 630–642.

[38] Taheri fard, Ali and Shahab, Samia. (2010). investigated the technical and economic aspects of geothermal electricity generation, Energy Economics, No. 125. (in persian)

[39] Tanrioven, M., “Reliability and cost-benefits of adding alternate power sources to an independent micro-grid community,” Journal of Power Source, vol. 150, pp. 136–149, 2005.

[40] Turner, R. K., Pearce, D., & Bateman, I. (1994). Environmental economics: an elementary introduction. Harvester Wheatsheaf.

[41] Vera, I. and Langlois, L. (2007). Energy indicators for sustainable development, Energy, Volume 32, Issue 6, June 2007, Pages 875–882.

[42] World Commission on Environment and Development. (1987). From One Earth to One World: An Overview. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

[43] Zhou, W. C. Z. Lou, Z. S. Li, L. Lu, H. X. Yang, “Current status of research on optimum sizing of stand-alone hybrid solar-wind power generation systems,” Applied Energy, vol. 87, pp. 380–389, 2010.

[44] Zhai, P., Larsen, P., Millstein, D., Menon, S., Masanet, E. (2012). the potential for avoided emissions from photovoltaic electricity in the United, Energy, 47 (2012), 443-450.

[45] Zelinka, I. (2001). Analytic programming by means of new evolutionary algorithms, Proceedings of 1st International Conference on New Trends in Physics’01, Brno, Czech Republic, pp. 210–214.

[46] Zelinka, I. (2002a). Analytic programming by means of soma algorithm, Proceedings of First International Conference on Intelligent Computing and Information Systems, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 148–154.

[47] Zelinka, I. (2002b). Analytic programming by means of soma algorithm, Proc. 8th International Conference on Soft Computing, VUT Brno, Mendel’02 Czech Republic, pp. 93–101.