تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت محصولات پتروشیمی در گروه D8

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 24، شماره 13، خرداد 1396، صفحه 29-45   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v24i14.58851

نویسنده

امیر رضا سوری^*

موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش های بازرگانی

چکیده

برای توضیح تجارت محصولات پتروشیمی بین کشورهای طرف تجاری در گروه D8، از مدل جاذبه برای فرموله کردن جریان‌های تجاری استفاده شده است. داده‌های تلفیقی مورد استفاده برای دوره 2006 تا 2015 برای هر یک از گروه‌های کالاییHS28(محصولات شیمیایی غیرآلی)،HS29 (محصولات شیمیایی آلی) وHS38 (محصولات گوناگون صنایع شیمیایی)، با یک پایگاه داده بزرگ و به روش‌های حداقل مربعات معمولی، اثرات ثابت و اثرات تصادفی برآورد شده است. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که قدرت توضیح‌دهندگی مدل برای هر سه گروه از محصولات بالا بوده و حجم تجارت گروه کالای HS28 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و تولید ناخالص داخلی واردکنندگان به ترتیب با و با کشش، حجم تجارت گروه کالایی HS29 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و تولید ناخالص داخلی واردکنندگان به ترتیب با و با کشش و حجم تجارت گروه کالایی HS38 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان بی‌کشش و با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی واردکنندگان با کشش بوده است. ضمن اینکه اندازه و ابعاد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه اثرات معنی‌دار مستقیم و عدم توازن تجاری و مسافت اثر معنی‌دار اما معکوس بر جریان تجاری کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تجارت بین الملل؛ محصولات پتروشیمی؛ مدل جاذبه؛ گروهD8

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