Investigating the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Raisin Export Quantity and Price

اقتصاد پولی مالی

Article 7, Volume 17, Issue 32, January 2011   

Document Type: پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/pm.v17i32.27271

Authors

Ali Reza Karbasi^* ; Hassan Ahmadi

Abstract

Raisin is the second major export item in Iranian agricultural section after pistachio. In this study, effects of exchange rate fluctuations were investigated on quantity and price of exported raisin. Therefore, data of 1970 to 2008 were reviewed by time series analysis and estimated by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL).
Results show the absence of a long-term relationship between export quantity, export price and real exchange rate. Meanwhile, considering the competing situation of raisin market, increased amount of export of raisin will result in more income and increasing trade benefit with no significant effect on the Price. In addition, a decline in export quantity for one year will result in less export in upcoming years due to loss of customers.

Keywords

Raisin; Exchange Rate; Export Price; Export Quantity; ARDL method