تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری در استان های ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 25، شماره 16، آبان 1397، صفحه 67-96   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v25i15.64057

نویسنده

حسن دلیری^*

دانشگاه گلستان

چکیده

کاهش نرخ باروی در ایران یکی از مهم‌ترین دغدغه های سیاست‌گذاران اجتماعی در سال‌های اخیر بوده است. وقوع این مسئله می تواند دلایل متعددی داشته باشد که یکی از مهم‌ترین آن‌ها، ساختار اقتصادی کشور است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع حاضر، در این پژوهش تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی (با تأکید بر متغیرهای بازار کار، برخورداری از مسکن و چگونگی توزیع درآمد) بر نرخ موالید در استان های ایران در دوره 1392-1384 با استفاده از روش داده های تابلوی بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان از آن دارد که متغیرهای اقتصادی و به‌خصوص شاخص های بازار کار به دلیل اثرات مهمی که بر هزینه فرصت افراد و درآمد انتظاری آنان در آینده دارد، نقش مهمی در تعیین نرخ باروری داشته است. به‌گونه‌ای که افزایش درآمدهای انتظاری از شغل برای مردان در قالب کاهش ریسک از دست دادن شغل (کاهش نوسان در نرخ بیکاری، کاهش نرخ اشتغال ناقص مردان، کاهش سهم اشتغال مردان در بخش خصوصی) و یا افزایش درآمد انتظاری آتی (افزایش نرخ اشتغال مردان) سبب بهبود نرخ باروری در استان های ایران شده و از سوی دیگر تأثیر متغیرهای بازار کار برای زنان در قالب کاهش ریسک (کاهش نوسان بیکاری، کاهش سهم اشتغال زنان در بخش خصوصی) سبب افزایش نرخ باروری شده است. همچنین کاهش هزینه فرصت باروری برای زنان (در قالب کاهش نرخ اشتغال و افزایش نرخ اشتغال ناقص زنان) و بهبود توزیع درآمد سبب بهبود باروری در استان های ایران شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

نرخ باروری؛ داده های تابلویی؛ توزیع درآمد؛ بازار کار؛ بیکاری

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