شبیه‌سازی شاخص های حدی دمای استان خوزستان بر اساس سناریوهای RCP

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 5، دوره 4، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 16، بهمن 1394، صفحه 105-124   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geo.v4i4.47304

نویسندگان

آمنه دشت بزرگی^{* 1}؛ بهلول علجانی²؛ زین العابدین جعفرپور²؛ علی رضا شکیبا³

¹دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

²دانشگاه خوارزمی

³دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

این مقاله، سعی نموده است روند شاخص های حدی دما را بر اساس سناریوی وضعیت موجود و سه سناریوی RCP شامل 6/2، 5/4 و 0/6 به‌عنوان سناریوهای پیشنهادی فاز 5 CMIP در استان خوزستان شبیه‌سازی نماید. برای این منظور شاخص های DTR،TMAXmean TMINmean، TN10p، TX10p، TN90p TN90p و TX90p از مجموعه شاخص های معرف تغییر اقلیم جهت تحلیل روند دما انتخاب گردیدند. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان می‌دهد در وضعیت موجود (2012-1982) کمینه‌های دما (72/2+ در سناریوی وضعیت موجود) نسبت به بیشینه‌های آن (2/1+ در سناریوی وضعیت موجود) با سرعت تقریباً بیشتری در حال افزایش هستند؛ به‌طوری‌که این مسئله منجر به روند کاهشی شاخص DTR شده است و شبیه‌سازی روند تغییرات دما بر اساس سناریوهای RCP حاکی از آن است در آینده (2050- 2013) روند افزایش دما همچنان ادامه خواهد داشت. به‌طورکلی در این پژوهش روند شاخص های شب‌های سرد و گرم (TN10p و TN90p) با روند شاخص TMINmean و شاخص های روزهای سرد و گرم (TX10p و TX90p) با شاخص TMAXmenn در مناطق مختلف استان هماهنگی نشان می دهد؛ به‌طوری‌که بر اساس آن‌ها تا سال 2050 شاخص‌های دوره سرد روند کاهشی (روزها و شب‌های سرد) و شاخص‌های دوره گرم سال (روزها و شب‌های گرم) روند افزایشی خواهند داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شاخص های حدی دما؛ خوزستان؛ سناریوهای RCP

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