Independence Referendum Senarios of the Kurdistan of Iraq

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

Article 5, Volume 7, Issue 2, January 2020, Pages 133-166   

Document Type: مقالات

DOI: 10.22067/jipr.v7i2.70070

Authors

alireza samiee esfahani^{* 1}; soghra farahmand²

¹yasouj

²ghazvin

Abstract

Abstract
Following the ISIL invasion of northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga unofficially took control of some parts of the northern Iraq abandoned by Iraqi forces and, as a result, consequently attempted to strengthen the independence of Kurdistan. This event has important internal and regional implications on the Iraqi Kurdistan region. Utilizing the Future Studies scenario technique, the current research aims to answer the following question: Given the Kurdish Peshmarga’s aim for the independent Kurdistan, how their political future can be best predicted? This investigation provides five scenarios in three categories: a) Prefarable scenario: Kurdistan climate negotiations with the central government of Iraq, Iran, Turkey, the United States and its western allies, and the declaration of independence of Kurdistan; the independence of the Kurdistan region and the utilizing Erbil's economic capabilities to influence future actions and reactions (B) Probable scenario: mediating a third actor, and enjoying economic and political privileges via taking part in the disputed areas administration; creating a confederal system in return for postponing or abandoning the independence of Kurdistan; Immediate announcement of the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan after the possible failure of talks with the central government of Iraq and the rest of regional and international states (C) Possible scenario: creation of a great Kurdistan. The findings of the present study indicate that the consequences of the referendum of September 25, 2017, have affected the Kurdistan region. Therefore, if the Kurdish government can not overcome this crisis, many of the current achievements in the economic sphere will lose political, social and cultural freedom.

Keywords

Iraq; Iraqi Kurdistan; The Kurds; Independence Referendum; Independent Government

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