Tree Ring Based Precipitation Reconstruction of Northeast Iran Using Juniper Tree Chronology of Lain Region

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 1, Volume 5, Issue 3 - Serial Number 19, January 2017, Pages 1-16   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geo.v5i3.54395

Authors

Mehdi Nadi^{* 1}; Kambiz Pourtahmasi²

¹Mazandaan Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University,Sari

²University of Tehran

Abstract

1. Introduction
Long-term climatic data are a prerequisite for hydro-meteorological studies and understanding of past climate. Iran is mostly located in semi-arid to arid climate zones, so information on the natural long-term variability of the hydroclimate is of great relevance for land use planning, agriculture, and water supply of a growing population. However, the maximum length of recorded climate data in Iran is less than 60 years, measured at less than 50 synoptic meteorological stations. Therefore, knowledge of the climate history in the distant past requires reconstruction of climate variables from proxy data. Tree-ring data are an important and precisely dated proxy to reconstruct variations in hydroclimate, especially in climates where tree growth is mainly limited by moisture availability. Juniper trees due to high survivability and high sensitivity to weather conditions are suitable tree species for the reconstruction of past climate. The present study is the first effort to reconstruct local precipitation in the northeast region of Iran from tree-ring data of Juniperus polycarpus.
2. Study Area
The tree-ring sampling site is located in the Hezarmasjed heights (Lain region) of Khorasan Shomali Province, northeast of Iran (37 N; 59° 21 E) at an altitude of 2100 MSL. The climate of the region is cold and semi-arid. Climatic data are prepared from meteorological stations and global data networks (NCEP-NCAR) with resolution of 2.5*2.5 deg. with the common period of 1949-2000. In order to understand regional variation rainfall, the average precipitation of six points from NCEP-NCAR network was considered as regional precipitation data. The chronology of tree ring width is developed from 16 increments of Juniper trees. To remove the biological age trend in ring width of data, a double de-trending procedure was applied to all series by using the ARSTAN program.
3. Material and Methods
In this study, the influence of temperature, precipitation and PDSI on tree ring width of Juniperus trees based on station and global network data was investigated and annual precipitation of northeast of Iran was reconstructed using the Juniper chronology in the period 1845-2000. A simple linear regression was employed to reconstruct precipitation. The reconstructed results were compared with recorded data of four long-term stations and also their correspondence with historical famine reports and the reconstruction results from neighboring countries (east and west) was investigated.
4. Results and Discussion
The results showed that tree ring widths of Juniper trees have positive correlation with temperature of pre growth December and negative correlation with temperature of May, significantly. Also precipitation in all months of growth season has positive effect on tree growth and annual rainfall has the highest correlation with tree ring widths. So average rainfall of northeast Iran from six points of global network data was calculated and using Juniperus chronology was reconstructed in 1845-2000. Correlation coefficients of calibration and evaluation periods were significant (p

Keywords

Tree ring; Global data; Juniperus polycarpus; Northeast precipitation; Lain

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