Optimum Operational Management from Surface Water Resources with Application Dynamic Programming

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

Article 3, Volume 26, Issue 4, December 2012, Pages 244-251   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jead2.v1391i4.19893

Authors

N. Mihankhah¹; A.H. Chizari^{* 2}; S. Khalilian¹

¹Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University

²Agricultural Economics, College of Agricultural and Natural Resources, Tehran University

Abstract

Thisstudy estimated the optimal operation model of the multipurpose Latian dam with the purpose of optimal allocation of water. The reservoir is used to supply water requirements of agricultural lands of Varamin plain and Tehran's municipal water. For achieving the mentioned goal, allocation priority among different water use competitors including irrigation, drinking water and hydropower was considered. With consideration to the uncertainty existence in estimating dam's water inflow, dam's operation problem was conducted based on two other techniques including time series model of SARIMA and fuzzy partitioning using Markov transition probability. Finally, using stochastic and deterministic dynamic programming, optimal operational policies for different scenarios (the beginning month, the volume of reservoir’s early water and last month's irrigation) were assessed. The study data is for the years 1976-2010. Results of simulation model with optimal release policy gained from two deterministic and stochastic models revealed that stochastic model based on fuzzy partitioning in compare with deterministic model provides better results for optimal water allocation among different water use competitors including agricultural lands in Varamin plain and drinking water of Tehran city.

Keywords

Optimum Operational of Dam; Fuzzy partition; Markov transition probability; Dynamic Programming; Forecasting SARIMA models