مدلی نوین برای برآورد حجم پول‌های کثیف در اقتصاد ایران (کاربرد روش‌های عددی و مسئله معکوس در اقتصاد)در اقتصاد)

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 10، دوره 23، شماره 11، آبان 1395، صفحه 215-238   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v23i11.39913

نویسندگان

مجتبی پورسلیمی¹؛ مهدی کیخا²؛ کامران سلمانی قرائی²

¹دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

چکیده

پول‌شویی با مکیدن ارزش‌افزودۀ تولید، باعث افزایش خط فقر می گردد؛ ازاین‌رو در سال‌های اخیر، تمایل زیادی برای سنجش این پدیده صورت گرفته و در کنار سایر متغیرهای مشابه در حوزۀ مالی- اقتصادی، تلاش شده تا از روش‌های مختلفی برای برآورد میزان و حجم آن بهره گرفته شود که برخی ازاین‌روش‌ها، مستقیم و برخی دیگر، غیرمستقیم هستند و عمدتاً بر سنجش افکار و ادراک مردم و متخصصان استوار می‌باشند. بااین‌حال در مقالۀ حاضر سعی شده تا ضمن بیان چگونگی مدلسازی روابط اقتصادی، الگوریتم جدیدی برای سنجش فساد مالی در ایران معرفی گردد که این الگوریتم مبتنی بر تکنیک‌های ریاضی است؛ درحالی‌که سایر روش‌ها، بنا به ماهیتی که دارند دارای پیش‌فرض‌های متعددی هستند که باعث بروز مشکلات عدیده و خطای فاحش می‌گردد. لازم به ذکر است، مدل حاضر با توجه به مدلسازی باتاچاریا برای پول‌های کثیف ارائه شده که برای این امر از آمار و اطلاعات بانک مرکزی در طی سال‌های 1386-1352 استفاده گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق حکایت از روند افزایشی حجم پول‌های کثیف در اقتصاد ایران دارد که به‌شدت با اهداف توسعه ای کشور در تناقض است، لذا مسئولان برای دستیابی به چشم‌انداز ایران 1404، باید تدابیری جدی در جهت مبارزه با این پدیده بیندیشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

فسادمالی؛ پولشویی؛ روشهای عددی؛ مسئله معکوس؛ اقتصاد ایران

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