Estimation of Iran's Agricultural Aggregate Demand and Supply: 1959-2007

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

Article 3, Volume 27, Issue 1, March 2013, Pages 16-24   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.24248

Authors

S. S. Hosseini^* ; H. Shahbazi

Agricultural Economics Department, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran

Abstract

Estimation of agricultural sector demand and supply and identification of its determinants could lead to more efficient policies and planning of this section. In this study, aggregate demand and supply of agriculture sector for years of 1959-2007 by using of nonlinear restricted ARMAX model are estimated. Result indicates that aggregate agriculture demand is inelastic in short and long run. Those elasticities are -0.118 and -0.162, respectively. Demand own price adjustment coefficient is about 0.273. Also, supply short and long run own price elasticities are 0.129 and 0.166, respectively. Its adjustment coefficient is 0.225. These results accentuate to Agricultural Product necessity nature.

Keywords

Supply; Demand; Agriculture sector; Nonlinear Restricted ARMAX model; Iran