بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز در کشورهای در حال توسعه

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 8، دوره 25، شماره 16، آبان 1397، صفحه 225-250   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v25i15.50904

نویسندگان

علی فقه مجیدی^{* 1}؛ زهرا ضرونی²

¹دانشگاه کردستان

²کردستان

چکیده

انتخاب نظام ارزی از طریق اثرگذاری بر بسیاری از متغیرهای اقتصادی می‌تواند نقش بسزایی در شرایط موجود و آینده اقتصاد هر کشوری ایفا نماید. همچنین، انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز نقش اساسی در سیاست‌های کلان اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال توسعه دارد. در این مطالعه به بررسی عوامل اقتصادی و سیاسی مؤثر بر انتخاب رژیم‌های ارزی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد بالاتر و پایین‌تر از میانگین در دوره زمانی 2014-1990 با استفاده از روش لاجیت و پروبیت پرداخته شده است. به‌طورکلی نظریه‌های رایج در انتخاب نظام ارزی نظریه انتخاب منطقه بهینه ارزی OAC، نظریه اقتصاد سیاسی و فرضیه بحران ارزی هستند که در این پژوهش بر تئوری OCA و اقتصادی سیاسی تأکید شده است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر این است که عوامل OCA بر انتخاب رژیم‌های نرخ ارز در کشورهای در حال توسعه تأثیر‌گذار هستند. متغیرهای اندازه اقتصاد، تورم و توسعه مالی احتمال انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز شناور را افزایش می‌دهد و متغیرهای توسعه اقتصادی، میزان باز بودن تجاری و شوک‌های پولی احتمال انتخاب آن را کاهش می‌دهند. به‌طورکلی می‌توان گفت که متغیر توسعه اقتصادی در هر دو گروه از کشورهای در حال توسعه بیشترین اثر را در انتخاب نرخ ارز ثابت دارد و تجارت خارجی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد پایین‌تر از میانگین و شوک پولی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد بالاترین از میانگین، کمترین اثر را در انتخاب نرخ ارز ثابت داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رژیم نرخ ارز؛ کشورهای در حال توسعه؛ تئوری OCA؛ لاجیت

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