بررسی اثرات رفاهی جانشینی پول در ایران (دوره زمانی1338-1392)

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 8، دوره 25، شماره 16، آبان 1397، صفحه 251-274   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v25i15.54854

نویسندگان

زینب قبائی آرانی^* ؛ بهرام سحابی؛ لطفعلی عاقلی کهنه شهری

تربیت مدرس

چکیده

جانشینی پول پدیده رایج کشورهای درحال توسعه است که اثرات متفاوتی بر رفاه اقتصادی افراد جامعه دارد. یکی از معیارهای مهم بررسی رفاه اقتصادی افراد جامعه، مصرف خصوصی می‌باشد. این پژوهش به بررسی اثرات رفاهی جانشینی پول از طریق تأثیر درجه جانشینی پول بر مصرف خصوصی می‌پردازد. در این پژوهش ابتدا از روش کمین و اریکسون(2003) برای برآورد حجم پول خارجی درگردش و درجه جانشینی پول استفاده می‌شود. برای تخمین تابع تقاضای پول واقعی در روش کمین و اریکسون و همچنین برای بررسی تأثیردرجه جانشینی پول بر مصرف خصوصی از روش هم‌جمعی جوهانسون-جوسیلیوس استفاده می‌شود. نتایج روش هم‌انباشتگی جوهانسون-جوسیلیوس نشان داد که تأثیر جانشینی پول بر مصرف خصوصی منفی و معنی‌دار است. به عبارتی دیگر با افزایش درجه جانشینی پول، مصرف خصوصی افراد کاهش می‌یابد و درنتیجه رفاه اقتصادی افراد نیز کاهش می یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

جانشینی پول؛ رفاه، مصرف خصوصی؛ هم انباشتگی جوهانسون-جوسیلیوس؛ ایران

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