عوامل تعیین‌کنندۀ سودآوری در نظام بانکی ایران با تأکید بر ساختار بازار و رفتار ریسک‌پذیری

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 11، دوره 25، شماره 15، اردیبهشت 1397، صفحه 1-20

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v25i16.62055

نویسندگان

محمد حسن فطرس¹؛ مهدی فردوسی^{* 2}؛ سعید عیسی زاده¹؛ حمید سپهردوست¹

¹بوعلی سینا

²دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان

چکیده

در ایران نقش بازار پول (بانک­ها) در تأمین مالی بخش­های مختلف اقتصادی به‌مراتب قوی­تر از بازار سرمایه (بورس اوراق بهادار) است. طی دو دهۀ گذشته، سیستم بانکی در سراسر دنیا تغییرات قابل ملاحظه‌ای را در محیط فعالیت خود تجربه کرده است و عوامل داخلی و خارجی متعددی بر ساختار و عملکرد آن تأثیرگذار بوده است. باوجوداین بر خلاف تمامی تغییرات مذکور، سیستم بانکی همچنان میدان­دار اصلی تأمین مالی فعالیت اقتصادی در بسیاری از کشورهاست؛ بنابراین ارزیابی عملکرد نظام بانکی حائز اهمیت است. سودآوری ازجمله عوامل تأثیر­گذار در ارزیابی عملکرد بانک­ها محسوب می­شود؛ ازاین‌رو شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر آن که مشتمل بر عوامل درونی و بیرونی است، ضروری می­نماید. در این پژوهش به بررسی اثرات ساختار بازار و رفتار ریسک­پذیری بر سودآوری نظام بانکی ایران (33 بانک) طی دورۀ 1382-1393 پرداخته شده است. یافته­ها با استفاده از رهیافت پنل­دیتا و روش GLS نشان می­دهد که افزایش تمرکز در بازار بانکی ایران و عامل ریسک به ترتیب اثرات مثبت و منفی بر سودآوری داشته است. اثر مثبت شاخص تمرکز بازار بانکی بر سودآوری، تأیید کنندۀ فرضیۀ ساختار – رفتار – عملکرد است. نتایج دیگر این­که سودآوری نظام بانکی ایران تحت تأثیر مثبت بهره‌وری کارکنان، شاخص توسعۀ بازار سرمایه و شاخص مدیریت هزینه و تأثیر منفی شاخص­های نقدینگی و تنوع عملیات بانکی بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سودآوری؛ ساختار بازار؛ ریسک پذیری؛ نظام بانکی؛ پنل دیتا

مراجع

[1] Albulescu, C.T. (2015). Banks’ Profitability and Financial Soundness Indicators: A Macro- Level Investigation in Emerging Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance 23 ( 2015 ) 203 – 209.

[2] Angbanzo, L. (1997). Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk and off-balance sheet banking. J. Bank. Finance 21, 55–87.

[3] Ansari, E. (2012). Examination of effective factors on profitability of commercial banks (case study of Bank Saderat in Iran). M.A Dissertation, Payam e Nour University, Alborz, Iran, (In Persian).

[4] Athanasoglou, P.P., Brissimis, S.N., & Delis, M.D. (2008). Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. J. Int. Financ.Mark. Inst. Money 18 (2), 121–136.

[5] Baltagi, B. (2001). Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data (3 ed), Chichester: Wiley.

[6] Ben Naceur, S. (2003). The determinants of Tunisian banking industry profitability: panel evidence. In: Paper Presented at the Economic Research Forum(ERF) 10th Annual conference, 16–18 December, Morocco

[7] Berger, A.N. (1995). The relationship between capital and earnings in banking. J. Money Credit Bank. 27 (2), 432–456.

[8] Bigdeli, M. (2009). Control role and anti-monopoly institutions in the banking industry of the country. J. Economic Researchs and Policies. 17 (51), 41-74 (In Persian).

[9] Bourke, P. (1989). Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia. J. Bank. Finance 13 (1), 65–79.

[10] Căpraru, B., & Ihnatov, I. (2014). Banks’ Profitability in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries. 21st International Economic Conference 2014, IECS 2014, 16-17 May 2014, Sibiu, Romania. 587-591.

[11] Chronopoulos, D.K., Liu, H., McMillan, F.J., & Wilson, J.O.S. (2013). The dynamics of US bank profitability. Eur. J. Finance,http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2013.838184.

[12] Darabi, R & Molaie, A. (2011). Impact Variables of Liquidity, Inflation, Capital, GDP on Profitability of Mellat Bank. J. Financial Knowledge of Securities. Vol 10, (In Persian).

[13] Dehghan Dehnavi, M.A. (2011). Structure and Performance of Iran banking industry. Ph.d Dissertation, Tarbyat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian).

[14] Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (1999). Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability: some international evidence. World Bank Econ.Rev. 13 (2), 379–408.

[15] Demsetz, H. (1973). Industry structure, market rivalry, and public policy. J. Law Econ. 16, 1–9.

[16] Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G.,(2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: evidence from Switzerland. J. Int. Financ. Mark. Inst.Money 21 (3), 307–327.

[17] Garcia-Herrero, A., Gavila, S., & Santabarbara, D. (2009). What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks? J. Bank. Finance 33 (1), 2080–2092.

[18] Gischer, H & Juttner, D.J. (2001). Profitability and competition in banking markets: an aggregative cross country approach. Otto – von – Guerich University, Mimeo

[19] Goddard, J., Molyneux, P.M., & Wilson, J.O.S. (2004a). Dynamic of growth and profitability in banking. J. Money Credit Bank. 36 (6), 1069–1090.

[20] Goudarzi, A., & Zobeydi, H. (2008). Impact of E-Bank expansion on profitability of Iran commercial banks. J. Economic Researchs of Iran. 10 (35), 111-140 (In Persian).

[21] Heffernan, S., & Fu, X. (2010). Determinants of financial performance in Chinese banking. Appl. Financ. Econ. 20 (20), 1585–1600.

[22] Hicks, J. R. (1935). Annual survey of economic theory: The theory of monopoly. Econometrica, 3, 1–20.

[23] Ho, T. S., & Saunders, A. (1981). The determinants of bank interest margins: theory and empirical evidence . Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, XVI (4), 581-600.

[24] Horvath, R. (2009). The Determinants of the Interest Rate Margins of Czech Banks, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 59(2), 128-136.

[25] Hoshyari, N. (2014). Impact of Inflation on Bank Profitability by Generalized Method of Moments. M.A Dissertation, Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).

[26] Kiani, H. (2012). Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Profitability of Iran Selected Banks. M.A Dissertation, Tabriz University, Tabriz,

Iran, (In Persian).

[27] Klein, M., 1971. A theory of the banking firm. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 3 (2), 205–218.

[28] Khosravan, S. (2011). Analysis of Determinants of Bank System Performance in Iran at Globalization Space ( Case Specialized Banks). M.A Dissertation, Tarbyat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, (In Persian).

[29] Lee, C. C., & Hsieh, M. F. (2013a). The impact of bank capital on profitability and risk in Asian banking. Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance, 32, 251–281.

[30] Liu, H., & Wilson, J.O.S. (2010). The profitability of banks in Japan. Appl. Financ. Econ. 20 (24), 1851–1866.

[31] Lloyd-Williams, D.M., Molynex, P., & Thornton, J. (1994). Market structure and performance in Spanish banking. J. Bank. Finance 18, 433–443.

[32] Macshane, R.W., & Sharpe, I.G. (1985). A time series/cross section analysis of the determinants of Australian Trading bank loan/deposit interest margin:1962–1982. J. Bank. Finance 9, 115–136.

[33] Maudos, J., & Fernandez deGuevara, J. (2004). Factors explaining the interest margin in the banking sectors of the European Union. J. Bank. Finance 28 (9),2259–2281.

[34] Mohammed, N., Ismail, & A.G, Muhammad, J. (2015). Evidence On Market Concentration In Malaysian Dual Banking System. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 172 ( 2015 ) 169 – 176.

[35] Molyneux, P., & Thornton, J. (1992). Determinants of European bank profitability: a note. J. Bank. Finance 16 (6), 1173–1178.

[36] Sadati, N,. (2013). Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Profitability of Commercial Banks (Case Study: Eghtesad Novin Bank). M.A Dissertation, Azad University, (In Persian).

[37] Seydnourani, S.M.R., Amiri, H., & Mohamadian, A. (2012). The Causa Profitability. Quarterly Journal Of Economic Relationship Between Bank Capital And Growth And Development Research, Vol 12, 11-44 (In Persian).

[38] Shahchera, M & Jouzdani, N. (2013). Effect of Capital Ratio on Profitability of Govermental and Private Banks in Iran(1380-1388). Monetari and Banking Researchs, Vol 12, (In Persian).

[39] Shih, V., Zhang, Q., & Liu, M. (2007). Comparing the performance of Chinese banks: a principal component approach. China Econ. Rev. 18 (1), 15–34 .

[40] Short, B. (1979). The relation between commercial bank profit rates and banking concentration in Canada, Western Europe and Japan. Journal of Banking and Finance 3 (4), 209–219.

[41] Staikouras, C.K., & Wood, G.E. (2004). The determinants of European bank profitability. Int. Bus. Econ. Res. J. 3 (6), 57–68.

[42] Sufian, F. (2009). Determinants of bank profitability in a developing economy: empirical evidence from the China banking sector. J. Asia-Pac. Bus. 10 (4),201–307.

[43] Sufian, F., & Chong, R.R. (2008). Determinants of bank profitability in a developing economy: empirical evidence from Philippines. Asian Acad. Manage. J.Account. Finance 4 (2), 91–112.

[44] Sufian, F., & Habibullah, M.S. (2009). Bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability: empirical evidence from the China banking sector.Front. Econ. China 4 (2), 274–291.

[45] Tan, Y. (2015). The impacts of risk and competition on bank profitability in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 1-26.

[46] Tan, Y & Floros, C. (2012a). Bank profitability and inflation: the case of China. J. Chin. Econ. Stud. 39(6), 675-696.

[47] Zhang, J., Qu, B., & Wang, W. (2012). Bank risk taking, efficiency, and law enforcement:Evidence from Chinese city commercial banks. China Economic Review, 23(2), 284–295.