Production and Trade Situation in Iran and USA and Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on the Exports

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

Article 3, Volume 28, Issue 3, October 2014, Pages 224-234   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.29514

Authors

M. Salarpour¹; S. Mojarad^{* 2}; M. Sabouhi³

¹Assistant Professor and Faculty Member of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran

²Zabol University

³Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Abstract

In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export in the Iranian economy was analyzed through examining a non linear relation between the two factors. Therefore, the hypothesis validation upon nonlinearity relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export was analyzed using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR). The results of smooth transition model (STAR) show that there is a nonlinear Granger causality between exchange rate and pistachio export and vice versa. It is therefore recommended ,in order to determine the threshold level of potential benefits of pistachio exports, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between the dynamic exchange rate and pistachio exports should be considered. Furthermore, in order to maintain market share in the international level, understanding target markets of export and achieving complete information upon the position of the major competitors in the production and trade of Pistachio is essential.

Keywords

Production; Pistachio trade; Exchange rates; Nonlinearity smooth transition model; Granger causality

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