Investigating Welfare Effect of Climate Change on the Wheat Products in Iran

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

Article 6, Volume 28, Issue 3, October 2014, Pages 292-300   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.35472

Authors

S. Khalilian¹; K. Shemshadi^{* 2}; S.A. Mortazavi¹; M. Ahmadian³

¹Tarbiat Modares University

²Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Planning Research, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran

³University of Tehran

Abstract

Agricultural sector will be most affected by climate change due to its extensive interaction with the environment. and as a result of changing production conditions, community welfare is changed. This study attempted at understanding the welfare effects of changes in climate parameters on the wheat product. Therefore, the yield functions were initially estimated. Supply, demand and import functions were secondly estimated by Simultaneous equations system. Finally, to study the welfare effects resulting from changes in temperature and precipitation, a price-endogenous mathematical programming model in three different scenarios of climate was used. The results showed that in the case of reducing precipitation with increasing temperature, consumer surplus, producer surplus and therefore society surplus will be reduced . Loss of welfare for consumers are higher than what is for producers.

Keywords

Climate change; Climatic zoning; wheat; Panel Data; Price-endogenous model

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