ارزیابی خسارت های اقتصادی انتقال آب بین حوضه ای بر الگوی کشت و وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان در حوضه مبدأ (مطالعه موردی: انتقال آب الموت رود به دشت قزوین)

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 9، دوره 29، شماره 3، مهر 1394، صفحه 319-333   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.48794

نویسندگان

ابوذر پرهیزکاری^{* 1}؛ حسین تقی زاده رنجبری¹؛ محسن شوکت فدایی²؛ ابوالفضل محمودی²

¹دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

²دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

طرح انتقال آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود که به منظور تأمین منابع آب کشاورزی دشت قزوین (حوضه مقصد) در مرحله برنامه ریزی و اجرا است، می‌تواند پیامدهای اقتصادی متعددی را در منطقه الموت (حوضه مبدأ) به دنبال داشته باشد. به همین منظور، در این تحقیق اثرات انتقال آب بین حوضه ای فوق بر کاربری اراضی (الگوی کشت)، وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان (سود ناخالص حاصل از الگوی کشت) و ارزش اقتصادی آب در حوضه مبدأ تحلیل و ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، از یک سیستم مدل‌سازی مشتمل بر مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و رهیافت تابع تولید با کشش جانشینی ثابت (CES) استفاده شد. داده های موردنیاز مربوط به سال زراعی 93-1392 است که از طریق مراجعه به ادارات ذیربط در استان قزوین جمع آوری شدند. نتایج نشان داد که انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با ایجاد محدودیت 10 تا 40 درصد در عرضه آب آبیاری منجر به کاهش 71/1 تا 52/5 و 17/2 تا 32/6 درصد الگوی کشت، کاهش 58/2 تا 21/8 و 18/3 تا 82/9 درصد سود ناخالص کشاورزان و افزایش 23/3 تا 1/31 و 09/4 تا 0/14درصد ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری در مناطق الموت شرقی و غربی می‌شود. در پایان با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، اجرای طرح انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با در نظرگرفتن ملاحظات اقتصادی در حوضه مبدأ توصیه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

انتقال آب بین حوضه ای؛ اثرات اقتصادی؛ الگوی کشت؛ بازده ناخالص کشاورزان؛ سرشاخه های الموت رود

مراجع

Alfarra A. 2004. Modeling water Resource management in Lake Naivasha, Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation.

2- Biswas A.K., Zuo D., James E. and Liu Ch. 1983. Long distance mass American transfers of water: A Chinese case study and international experiences.

3- Dehghani Monshadi H., Niksokhan M.H. and Ardestani M. 2013. Estimates of virtual water Aquiverous Basin and its role in inter-basin water transfer systems. Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 6(1): 114-101, (In Persian with English abstract).

4- Department of Energy. 2012. Detailed report on the construction of Taleghan Dam, Department of Energy, Tehran, Iran, 83 p. (In Persian).

5- Department of Energy. 2012. Basic studies of water resources. Water transfer project branches of Alamutrood to the Qazvin plain, Qazvin Province Regional Water Organization.

6- Ghodratnama Gh. 2004. Water transfers of the basin to basin, standards and policies. Seminar Inter-Basin Water Transfer and its Role in Sustainable Development, water and electricity Industry University, (In Persian with English abstract).

7- Halabian A.H. and Shabankari M. 2010. Water resources management in Iran (case study: challenges of the water transfer from Beheshtabad to Zayandehrood. 4th international Congress of the Islamic World Geographers (ICIWG 2010), 25-27 September, Zahedan, University of Sistan Balochestan. (In Persian with English abstract).

8- He L., Tyner W.E., Doukkali R. and Siam G. 2006. Policy options to improve water allocation efficiency: analysis on Egypt and Morocco. Water International, 31, 320–337.

9- He L., Horbulyk T.M., Ali M.K., Roy D.G.L. and Klein K.K. 2012. Proportional water sharing vs. seniority- based allocation in the Bow River basin of Southern Alberta. Agricultural Water Management, 104: 21-31.

10- Heckelei T. 2002. Calibration and Estimation of Programming Models for Agricultural Supply Analysis, University of Bonn, Pp: 159.

11- Herbertson P.W. and Tate E.L. 2001. Tools for water use and demand management in South Africa, World Meteorological Organization, Technical Reports in Hydrology and Water Resources, Pp: 73.

12- Howitt R.E. 1995. Positive mathematical programming, American Journal of Agricultural Economic, 77: 329-342.

13- Howitt R.E. 2005. Agricultural and environmental policy models: calibration, estimation, and optimization. Deport of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, USA.

14- Howitt R.E., Medellin-Azuara J., MacEwan D., and Lund J.R. 2012. Calibrating disaggregate economic models of agricultural production and water management. Environmental Modeling & Software, 38: 244-258.

15- Medellin-Azuara J., Harou J., and Howitt R.E. 2010. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation, Science of the Total Environment, 408: 5639-5648.

16- Medellan-Azuara J., Harou J.J. and Howitt R.E. 2011. Predicting farmer responses to water pricing, rationing and subsidies assuming profit maximizing investment in irrigation technology. Science of the Agricultural Water Management, 108: 73–82.

17- Mohseni A. and Zibaee M. 2009. Analysis of the consequences of increasing acreage of canola in Namdan plain of Fars province: approach of positive mathematical programming model, Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 47(b):773-774, (In Persian with English abstract).

18- Mozaffari M.M., Parhizkari A., Hoseini Khodadadi M. and Parhizkari R. 2015. Economic Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change Induced by Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Agricultural Productions and Available Water Resources (Case Study: Down Lands of the Taleghan Dam). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 29(1): 89-103. (In Persian with English abstract).

19- Parhizkari A. 2013. Determination economic value of irrigation water and farmer’s response to price and non-price policies in Qazvin province, the thesis submitted for the degree of M.Sc. in the field of agricultural economics, University of Zabol, Iran. (In Persian with English abstract).

20- Parhizkari A. and Sabuhi M. 2013. Analysis of the economic and welfare impacts of establishment irrigation water market in Qazvin province, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 27(4): 338-350. (In Persian with English abstract).

21- Parhizkari A. and Sabuhi M. 2013. Simulation farmers’ response to reducing available water policy, Journal of Water and Irrigation Management, 3(2): 59-74. (In Persian with English abstract).

22- Parhizkari A., Sabuhi M. and Ziaee S. 2013. Simulation water market and analysis of the effects irrigation water sharing policy on cropping patterns under conditions of water shortage, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 27(3): 242-252. (In Persian with English abstract).

23- Parhizkari A., Sabuhi M., Ahmadpour M. and Badie Barzin H. 2014. Simulation the Farmers’ Response to Irrigation Water Pricing and Rationing Policies (Case Study: Zabol City). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(2): 164-176. (In Persian with English abstract).

24- Parhizkari A. 2015. Determining the economic value of irrigation water and analysis the effects of drought on cropping pattern and farmers' gross profit (Case study: Qazvin plain). Final Report of the Research Project in the Elites Foundation of the Armed Forces, Elites Foundation, Project No: 2-050-03-01-86010. (In Persian with English abstract).

25- Rockstrom J., Lannerstad M. and Falkenmark M. 2007. Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 104(1): 6253- 6260.

26- Rostamafshar N. and Pire A. 2004. Inter-basin Seminar Inter-Basin Water Transfer and its Role in Sustainable Development, water and electricity Industry University, (In Persian with English abstract).

27- Sabohi M., Soltani GH. and Zibaee M. 2007. The effect of changes in the price of irrigation water on private and social interests Using the positive mathematical programming model, Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development (Agricultural Science and Technology), 21(1):53-71, (In Persian with English abstract).

28- Saidinia M., Samadi Borojani H. and Fattahi R. 2008. Evaluation of inter-basin water transfer projects using WEAP model (case study: Beheshtabad tunnel). Iran Water Research Journal, 2(3):44-33, (In Persian with English abstract).

29- Samadi Borojani H. 2010. Inter-basin water transfer (opportunities and challenges). Shahrekord University press, Water Resources Research Center, (In Persian with English abstract).

30- Schuol J., Abbaspour K.C., Srinivasan R. and Yang H. 2008. Estimation of freshwater availability in the West African sub-continent using the SWAT hydrologic model, Journal of Hydrology, 352: 30-49.

31- White G. 1977. Comparative analysis of complex river development in environmental effects of complex river development, West View Press, Boulder, Colorado, pp: 78.