سنجش ابعاد آسیب‌پذیری استان‌ها نسبت به خشکسالی، راهکاری به سوی مدیریت ریسک در سطح کشور

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 29، شماره 4، دی 1394، صفحه 359-373   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v29i4.47932

نویسندگان

فاطمه نصرنیا^* ؛ منصور زیبایی

دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

خشکسالی یکی از پر هزینه‌ترین بلایای طبیعی در ایران می‌‌باشد. به نظر می‌رسد گام ضروری برای مقابله با خشکسالی و تعدیل تبعات آن، شناخت و درک دقیق ابعاد آسیب‌پذیری هر منطقه است که متأسفانه در کشور ما مورد غفلت واقع شده است. این امر ضرورت مطالعه در زمینه تعیین آسیب‌پذیری و شناسایی عوامل اثرگذار بر آندر مناطق مختلف کشور را مشهود می‌سازد. در مطالعه حاضر، به منظور ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به خشکسالی در استان های مختلف کشور، از روش سلسله مراتبی فازی (Fuzzy AHP ) استفاده شد. آسیب‌پذیری شامل ابعاد آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی، آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی و آسیب‌پذیری فیزیکی می‌باشد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد اهمیت آسیب‌پذیری فیزیکی بیش از آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی و اجتماعی و اهمیت آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی و اجتماعی یکسان است. در معیار آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی زیر معیار GDP سرانه، در معیار آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی زیر معیار تراکم جمعیت و در معیار آسیب‌پذیری فیزیکی زیر معیار تراکم جاده بیشترین اهمیت را به خود اختصاص داده اند.طبق نتایج این مطالعه استان های سمنان، کرمان، یزد، سیستان و بلوچستان و هرمزگان به ترتیب آسیب پذیرترین استان‌ها نسبت به خشکسالی به شمار می‌آیند. با توجه به این واقعیت که استان‌های مختلف چه در زمینه آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به خشکسالی و چه در زمینه ابعاد مختلف آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فیزیکی تفاوت قابل ملاحظه ای دارند، در راستای نیل به مدیریت خشکسالی بر مبنای مدیریت ریسک، پیشنهاد می‌گردد در تدوین برنامه‌ها و سیاست‌ها به اثرات متفاوت خشکسالی در استان‌های مختلف توجه کافی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی؛ آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی؛ آسیب‌پذیری فیزیکی و روش سلسله مراتبی فازی

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