اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر تولید، مصرف و تجارت برنج

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 32، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 41، پاییز 1397، صفحه 199-212  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v32i3.68802

نویسندگان

لیلا راوند¹؛ آرش دوراندیش ²؛ محمود صبوحی صابونی¹

¹فردوسی مشهد

²دانشگاه فردوسی

چکیده

آزادسازی تجاری منجر به حذف کلیه تحریف‌های تجاری می‌شود و هدف نهایی آن تشکیل یک بازار واحد جهانی می‌باشد. برنج یکی از مهم‌ترین محصولات کشاورزی و استراتژیک بوده و نقش بسیار مهمی در تجارت و امنیت غذایی ایران و جهان دارد. این پژوهش با استفاده از الگوی تعادل جزئی بخش کشاورزی و بهینه‌سازی با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی مثبت و رهیافت حداکثر بی‌نظمی مقطعی به بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر تولید، مصرف و تجارت برنج در استان‌های تولیدکننده عمده برنج ایران (مازندران، گیلان، خوزستان، گلستان و فارس) پرداخته است. برای این منظور از میانگین داده‌های تولید، مصرف و تجارت برای سال‌های 1393 و 1394 به‌عنوان سال پایه استفاده گردید و الگو با استفاده از نرم افزار GAMS برآورد گردید. سناریوهای مورد بررسی شامل کاهش نرخ‌ تعرفه واردات برنج به میزان 10، 25، 50، 75، 90 و 100 درصد بود. نتایج نشان داد که با کاهش نرخ‌ تعرفه واردات سطح زیرکشت برنج دانه بلند و دانه متوسط در استان مازندران به‌ترتیب 61/0 و 38/3 درصد، در استان گیلان 49/0 و 18/9 درصد، در استان گلستان 82/2 و 32/4 درصد، در استان خوزستان 90 و 6/0 درصد و در استان فارس 47/24 و 47/2 درصد کاهش می‌یابد و سطح زیرکشت برنج دانه کوتاه در استان‌ گلستان 93/22 درصد و در استان فارس 33/43 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. مجموع کل میزان مصرف، واردات و صادرات برنج دانه بلند، متوسط و کوتاه نیز افزایش می‌یابد. میزان افزایش رفاه خالص اجتماعی بسیار کم و حدود 2/0 درصد، رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان حدود 11 درصد و رفاه دولت نیز حدود 11 درصد افزایش می‌یابد، رفاه تولیدکنندگان نیز به اندازه 2 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. بنابراین با ایجاد تکنولوژی‎‌های جدید و روش‌های نوین کاشت مانند کشت هیدروپونیک که منجر به افزایش عملکرد و افزایش بهره‌وری آب در واحد سطح می‌شوند و کاشت ارقامی از برنج که در هر استان مزیت نسبی دارند می‌توان برنج ایرانی را حفظ نمود و بخشی از کاهش رفاه ‌تولیدکنندگان را جبران نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آزادسازی تجاری؛ برنج؛ برنامه‌ریزی اثباتی؛ تعرفه؛ حداکثر بی‌نظمی مقطعی

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