آثار افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی بر رفاه و فقر خانوارهای شهری ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 32، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 42، زمستان 1397، صفحه 287-298  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v32i4.69715

نویسندگان

نیلوفر اشک تراب¹؛ زهرا نعمت الهی²

¹دانشگاه شیراز

²دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی بر رفاه خانوارهای شهری است. به‌منظور بررسی رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان و برآورد کشش­های قیمتی کالاهای مورد مطالعه از رهیافت دیتون استفاده شده است. براساس این رهیافت واکنش مصرف‌کنندگان نسبت به افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور از اطلاعات مربوط به هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری مرکز آمار ایران در سال 1393 استفاده شده است. داده‌های این بررسی نیز شامل مخارج و مقادیر مصرف کالاهای خوراکی و همچنین ویژگی­های جمعیتی اندازه خانوار و میزان تحصیلات سرپرست خانوار است. پس از تخمین تابع تقاضای کالاهای خوراکی خانوار با استفاده از سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده­آل درجه دوم (QAIDS)، کشش قیمتی و درآمدی محاسبه شده است. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، در نتیجه­ی اعمال سه سناریوی افزایش قیمت، با 15 درصد افزایش قیمت‌ها، 144 خانوار (98/1 درصد) به خانواده های فقیر و زیر خط فقر اضافه شده­اند. با افزایش 25 درصدی قیمت­ها، 253 خانوار (5/3 درصد) و با افزایش 50 درصدی قیمت­ها 503 خانوار (93/6 درصد) به زیر خط فقر منتقل شدند. بنابراین با توجه به اینکه خوراکی­ها، سهم بالایی از سبد مصرفی خانوارهای شهری را به خود اختصاص داده است، می‌بایستی جهت حفظ سطح رفاه خانوارها، حمایت‌های مالی لازم انجام شده و معادل تغییرات جبرانی محاسبه شده جهت حفظ مطلوبیت خانوارها، پرداخت گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

افزایش قیمت؛ کالاهای اساسی؛ فقر؛ تابع تقاضای QAIDS

مراجع

1- Ahmed M.A., and Buoys H.E. 2002. Weighing what's practical: proxy means Tests for Targeting Food Subsidies in Egypt, FC ND Discussion paper, 132, http//www.ifpri.org.

2- Akbari A., Ahmadi Javid M., Ziaei M.B., and Barekati S.M. 2015. Estimation of food demand function of urban households in Sistan and Baluchistan province using NNDS and QUAIDS systems. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(2): 93- 116. (In Persian)

3- Attanasio O., Di Maro V., Lechene V., and Phillips D. 2013. Welfare consequences of food prices increases: Evidence from rural Mexico. Journal of Development Economics, 104: 136–151.

4- Azzam A.M., and Rettab B. 2012. A welfare measure of consumer vulnerability to rising prices of food imports in the UAE; Food Policy, 37: 554-560.

5- Daat G. 1998. Controversy, tools for porerty measurement and Analysis FCND Discussion paper, No, 50. http://www.ifpri.org.

6- Deaton A., and Muellbauer J. 1980. An almost ideal demand system. American Economic Review, 70: 312–326.

7- Deaton A. 2000. Analysis of Household Surveys: A Micro Econometric Approach to Development Policy. John Hopkins University Press. Tech. rep., World Bank policy research working paper.

8- Ebrahimi M., and Dehghani Ahmadabadi H. 2011. Study of welfare changes due to increased electricity prices in urban and rural households. Journal of Social Welfare Research, 12(46): 373-397. (In Persian)

9- Falahi F., Mohammadzadeh P., and Hekmati Farid S. 2013. Study of welfare effects of commodity price rises in rural households in the country. Journal of Economic Research, 2: 131-150. (In Persian)

10- Fujii T. 2013. Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines; Food Policy, 39: 13-27.

11- Ghahraman Zadeh M., Ziaee M.B., Pishbahr A., and Dashti GH. 2015. Measuring the effect of rising food prices on the welfare of Iranian urban households. Agricultural Economics Journal, 9(4): 97-119. (In Persian)

12- Gorman W.M. 1953. Community preference fields. Econometrica, 21: 63–80.

Haraki K. 1998. Food Subsidies: A case study of price Reform in morocco, h sms working paper, 50.

Hosseini Yekani S.A., Nematollahi Z., and Hosseinzadeh M. 2017. The welfare effects of rising of domestic rice Price on Mazandaranians households, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 31(3): 228- 239. (In Persian)

13- Hosseinzad J., Sohrabi Athar F., Dashti Gh., and Ghahramanzadeh M. 2014. Application of system models in the analysis of demand for food commodities in Iran, Iranian Economic Research and Development, 45(3): 545- 554. (In Persian)

14- Layani Gh., and Esmaeili A. 2015. Determine the vulnerability of urban households due to the increase in imported food prices in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 7(3): 109-127. (In Persian)

15- Layani Gh., and Bakhshoudeh M. 2016. Investigating changes in the level of poverty and determining the vulnerability of rural households due to the rise in global prices of food in Iran, Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 16(3): 1- 27. (In Persian)

16- Loughrey J., and Odonoghue C. 2012. The Welfare impact of price changes on household Welfare and inequality 1999-2011, the Economic and Social Review, 43(1): 31–66.

17- Minot N., and Dewina R. 2013. Impact of food price changes on household welfare in Ghana, ifpri discussion paper 01245, 1- 32.

18- Mosakhani GH. 1999. Analysis of Social Welfare in Iran and its Effectiveness from Inequality of Income. Thesis, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.

19- Muellbauer J. 1976. Community preferences and the representative consumer. Econometrica, 44: 979–999.

20- Nelson C., Wood B., and Nogueira L. 2011. Econometrics of welfare evaluation of price changes: The case of food price increases in Mexico.

21- Nematalahi Z., and Shahnoushi Foroshani N. 2012. Evaluating the effects of energy efficiency allocation on the Prices of Agricultural Products, Food Industries and Household Welfare (Application of Input-Output Table). Eighth Biennial of Iranian Agricultural Economics, 2623-2634. (In Persian)

22- Osei-Asare Y.B., and Eghan M. 2013. Food price inflation and consumer Welfare in Ghana. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 1(1): 27-39.

23- Piraee Kh., and Akbari Moghadam B. 2005. Effect of reduction of agricultural subsidy and changes in labor tax rate on urban production and welfare of rural and urban households in Iran (based on the generalized computational equation and social accounting matrix simulation method). Quarterly journal of economic research of Iran, 7(22): 1-30.) In Persian (

24- Piraee Kh.N and Shahsavari M.R. 2009. Poverty assessment in urban and rural areas of Fars province. Economic Research, 9(9): 233-265. (In Persian)

25- Renani M., and Mehabadi M. 2000. Impact of inequality and poverty on the efficiency of macroeconomic policies. Articles on poverty in Iran, University of Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences Tehran: 189-209.) In Persian (

26- Rodriguez-Takeuchi L., and Imai K.S. 2013. Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data; Food Policy, 43: 227-236.

27- Sen A.K. 1976. Poverty: an ordinal approach to the measurement; Econometrica, 44: 219-231.

28- Shimeles A., and Delelegn A. 2013. Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data, Working Paper Series, 182.

29- Varian H. 1999. Microeconomic theory. Translation: Abbas Shakeri, Tehran, Ney Publishing. (In Persian (

30- Vu L., and Glewwe P. 2011. Impacts of rising food prices on poverty and welfare in Vietnam. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 14-27.

31- Ziegelhofer Z. 2014. Food prices and household welfare: A pseudo panel approach, Ph.D thesis of International Economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.