تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر طول مراحل رشد و نیاز آبی گندم و جو (مطالعه موردی: دشت بیرجند)

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 2، دوره 7، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 26، دی 1393، صفحه 443-460   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v7i4.26666

نویسندگان

میترا رحمانی¹؛ مجید جامی الاحمدی^{* 1}؛ علی شهیدی²؛ مصطفی هادی زاده ازغندی³

¹گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

²دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

³گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

چکیده

اقلیم جهانی در حال تغییر می باشد و تغییرات آب و هوایی، با وجود تلاش به منظور کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای، اجتناب ناپذیر است. در این بین، کشاورزی به عنوان یک مصرف کننده عمده آب نیاز خواهد داشت تا به منظور تضمین بقاء و پایداری خود، در کنار سایر چالش ها، نسبت به این تغییرات نیز تطابق پیدا کند و پیش آگاهی در خصوص تغییرات آتی اقلیمی و اثرات آن بر روی مصرف آب کشاورزی می تواند در این زمینه راه گشا باشد. در تحقیق حاضر اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی گندم و جو و عملکرد گندم در دوره زمانی 2039-2010 در منطقه بیرجند مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. پارامترهای اقلیمی دما و بارندگی در دوره زمانی 2039-2010 با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG5 شبیه سازی شدند. تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل و واقعی به روش پنمن مانتیث و بارندگی مؤثر به روش USDA محاسبه شد و نیاز آبی محصول توسط نرم افزار کراپ وات برآورد گردید. اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد گندم با استفاده از مدل DSSAT مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در آینده درجه حرارت های کمینه و بیشینه در تمامی ماه های سال افزایش می یابند و متوسط بارش سالیانه نیز حدود 5/3 درصد بیشتر خواهد بود. با وجود بیشتر شدن تبخیر و تعرق گیاه مرجع، به دلیل کاشت زودتر گندم و جو و کوتاه شدن طول دوره رشد آنها، نیاز آبی محصولات در آینده بین 5/19 درصد (گندم) تا 5/22 درصد (جو) کمتر خواهد شد. از سوی دیگر عملکرد گندم نیز به علت کوتاه تر شدن طول دوره رشد محصول تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم حدود 30 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مدل گردش عمومی جو؛ مدل LARS-WG؛ تبخیر و تعرق؛ ضریب گیاهی

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