اندازه‌گیری میزان تأثیر بارش‌های ‌شدید بهاری، بر کارایی‌فنی تولید گوجه‌فرنگی در ارسنجان

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 33، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 44، مرداد 1398، صفحه 109-124   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.71763

نویسنده

مرتضی حسن شاهی^*

دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی ارسنجان

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف ارائه راه‌حل، جهت جلوگیری از ورشکستگی و ضرر گوجه‌فرنگی‌کاران در سال‌های اخیر به علت بارش‌های‌شدید در مرحله رشد خصوصاً مرحله گلدهی محصول انجام ‌شده است. در راستای نیل به این هدف، تأثیر بارش‌های‌ شدید بر کارایی ‌فنی در مراحل رشد گوجه‌فرنگی در ارسنجان برآورد شده است. در این راستا از داده‌های سال زراعی 1396-1395 و الگوی اصلاح‌شده تابع تولید مرزی ‌تصادفی استفاده و نتایج آن با الگوی سنتی تابع تولیدمرزی‌تصادفی مقایسه شده است. طبق نتایج بارش‌های‌شدید بر تولید و کارایی‌فنی مزرعه تأثیر منفی دارد به‌طوری‌که نادیده گرفتن آن‌ها باعث تورش‌دار شدن ضرایب نهاده‌های تولید و تعیین‌کننده‌های کارایی‌فنی می‌شود. طبق بخش دیگری از یافته‌ها، با استفاده مناسب از نهاده‌ها می‌توان کارایی‌فنی را 14٪ افزایش داد که نتیجه آن افزایش 19% در تولید و کاهش 6/11% در هزینه‌های تولید خواهد بود. از یافته‌های دیگر این پژوهش رابطه متقابل بین نهاده‌های تولید و متغیرهای بارندگی است، به‌طوری‌که بارش‌های‌شدید در مراحل رشد گیاه نه‌تنها باعث تخریب مزرعه می‌شود، بلکه باعث کاهش کارایی سایر نهاده‌ها نیز می‌گردد. جهت جلوگیری از این خسارات توصیه می‌شود این‌گونه محصولات به‌صورت گلخانه‌ای کشت شود تا بتوان متغیرهای جوی را کنترل کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی مرز تولید تصادفی اصلاح‌شده؛ بارش‌های نامنظم؛ گوجه‌فرنگی؛ کارایی فنی

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