پهنه بندی وقوع خشک‌سالی در استان فارس تحت تأثیر شرایط تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از شاخص بارش استاندارد

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 9، دوره 7، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 26، دی 1393، صفحه 528-546   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v7i4.46919

نویسندگان

رضا دیهیم فرد^{* 1}؛ حامد عینی نرگسه²؛ مسعود حقیقت³

¹گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

²گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

³گروه هواشناسی کشاورزی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

موضوع تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم ترین چالش های محققین در قرن 21 است و با توجه به نقش حیاتی آب در زندگی بشر، بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر شدت و فراوانی خشک‌سالی برای هر منطقه ضروری و مهم می باشد. هدف از این مطالعه پیش بینی پارامترهای هواشناسی استان فارس در شرایط تغییر اقلیم، محاسبه شاخص خشکی و پهنه بندی آن در این استان است. در این مطالعه به منظور پیش بینی اقلیم آینده در 9 شهرستان استان فارس (شیراز، اقلید، فسا، لار، لامرد، داراب، زرقان، نیریز و آباده) از دو مدل اقلیمی (HadCM3 و IPCM4) تحت سه سناریو (B1، A1B و A2) در سه دوره (30-2011، 65-2046 و 99-2080) استفاده شد. همچنین برای ریزمقیاس کردن پارامترهای اقلیمی از LARS-WG استفاده شد. برای محاسبه شاخص خشکی سالی از شاخص SPI در مقیاس زمانی 12 ماه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره پایه شهرستان های آباده و لار در طبقه خشکی حاد (48/2- و 09/2-) قرار داشتند درصورتی‌که تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده شهرستان لامرد در طبقه خشکی حاد قرار می گیرد. بیشترین شدت خشک سالی با استفاده از مدل HadCM3 تحت سناریوی A2 در دوره 2099-2080 در نیریز (33/1) و کمترین شدت خشک سالی در شهرستان لامرد (58/2-) در دوره 2065-2046 با استفاده از مدل IPCM4 و تحت سناریوی A1B بدست آمد. به طور کلی نتایج نشان داد که در دوره پایه بخش عمده ای از مناطق استان فارس با استفاده از شاخص SPI در طبقه نرمال (نیمه جنوبی استان) و خشکی ملایم (نیمه شمالی استان) قرار دارند درحالی که در آینده عمده مناطق استان فارس در طبقه نرمال قرار خواهند گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

درون یابی؛ ریزمقیاس نمایی؛ سامانه اطلاعات جفرافیایی؛ مدل اقلیمی

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