تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک تولید گندم در ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 33، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 46، اسفند 1398، صفحه 329-338   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v33i3.66850

نویسندگان

آذر هاشمی‌نژاد؛ عباس عبدشاهی^* ؛ منصور غنیان؛ بهمن خسروی‌پور

دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان

چکیده

یکی از مهم­ترین زنجیره­های غذایی کشور که نقش مهمی در امنیت غذایی جامعه دارد، زنجیره تأمین نان می­باشد. تولید گندم به عنوان حلقه آغازین این زنجیره نقش مهمی در بهبود عملکرد آن دارد. همچنین گندم یکی از محصولات استراتژیک کشور بوده است که از نظر ارزش غذایی، دارای اهمیت بسیار بالایی بوده و از مهم­ترین و پرمصرف­ترین محصولات کشاورزی می­باشد. اما طی چند دهه گذشته از یک طرف به دلیل شرایط اقلیمی و خشک‌سالی­های پیاپی و از طرف دیگر، به دلیل برخی سیاست­ها، تولید این محصول با نوسانات و ریسک زیادی مواجهه شده که منجر به اختلالاتی در زنجیره تأمین نان گردیده است. لذا این مطالعه به تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان پرداخته است. داده‌های مورد استفاده، مربوط به دوره زمانی 1393-1361 می‌باشد. برای شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک تولید گندم، ابتدا با استفاده از یک مدل GARCH(2,0)، واریانس تولید گندم به عنوان معیار ریسک تعیین گردید. با توجه به انباشتگی متغیرها از مرتبه صفر و یک، از یک مدل ARDL برای شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک استفاده گردید. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای جمعیت، واردات گندم، بارندگی و سطح زیرکشت در جهت مثبت و متغیرهای قیمت تضمینی و طرح محوری گندم در جهت منفی واریانس تولید گندم (ریسک تولید گندم) را متأثر می­نمایند. لذا پیشنهاد می­شود ضمن استمرار قیمت تضمینی گندم، از طرح­هایی نظیر طرح محوری که موجبات کاهش ریسک تولید گندم را فراهم می­آورند، حمایت به عمل آمده و در جهت بهبود سیاست­هایی مثل واردات گندم یا تعیین بهینه سطح زیرکشت اقدام نمود. همچنین با توجه به انگیزه پایین بخش خصوصی برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، بایستی دولت با افزایش سهم خود در پرداخت حق بیمه و همچنین اعطای خسارت، موجبات تمایل بیشتر گندم‌کاران به بیمه محصول را فراهم نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

امنیت غذایی؛ تولید گندم؛ زنجیره تأمین؛ ریسک

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