ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر شرایط هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 34، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 47، فروردین 1399، صفحه 63-79   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v33i4.84531

نویسندگان

سیامک نیک مهر^* ؛ منصور زیبایی

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر، ارزیابی اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم و سناریو تطبیقی بهبود راندمان آبیاری بر وضعیت کشاورزی زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی با استفاده از یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی می‌باشد. در بخش اقتصادی این مدل، از روش برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و در بخش هیدرولوژیکی از مدل WEAP و ماژول MABIA برای شبیه‌سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم استفاده‌شده است. نتایج مدل WEAP نشان می‌دهد که تغییر اقلیم موجب کاهش آب در دسترس در مناطق مختلف زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی می‌شود؛ اما اثر تغییر اقلیم در مناطق مختلف متفاوت است. آب در دسترس در مناطق پای پل و کرخه نور به ترتیب به میزان 29/8 و 76/32 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین نتایج ماژول MABIA نشان می دهد که تغییر اقلیم موجب تغییر عملکرد و نیاز آبی محصولات مختلف شده است. در میان محصولات مختلف، بیشترین و کمترین تغییر عملکرد مربوط به محصولات برنج و چغندر قند بوده است. به‌گونه‌ای که عملکرد این محصولات به میزان 34 و 5/1 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. این تغییرات با افزایش نیاز آبی تمامی محصولات همراه می‌باشد. در نهایت، نتایج مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی نشان داد که براثر تغییر اقلیم، سطح زیر کشت محصولات و سود کشاورزی در زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی، نسبت به سناریو مرجع به ترتیب به میزان 93/17 و 44 درصد کاهش می‌یابد؛ اما اتخاذ راهبرد تطبیقی بهبود راندمان آبیاری در این زیر حوضه موجب افزایش سود فعالیت‌های کشاورزی به میزان 347 میلیارد ریال خواهد شد. بنابراین استفاده از روش‌های جدید آبیاری می‌تواند ریسک کشاورزی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم را در زیر حوضه آبریز کرخه جنوبی کاهش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ روش PMP؛ زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی؛ سناریو تطبیقی؛ مدل WEAP

مراجع

1. Agarwal S., Patil J.P., Goyal V.C., and Singh A. 2019. Assessment of Water Supply–Demand Using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model for Ur River Watershed, Madhya Pradesh, India. Journal of the Institution of Engineers (India) 100(1): 21-32.
2. Aldy J.E., and Pizer W.A. 2015. The competitiveness impacts of climate change mitigation policies. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 2(4): 565-595.
3. Allen R.G., Pereira L.S., Raes D., and Smith M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300(9), D05109.
4. Ashraf Vaghefi S., Mousavi S.J., Abbaspour K.C., Srinivasan R., and Yang H. 2014. Analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Hydrological Processes 28(4): 2018-2032.
5. Bagheri Harooni M.H., and Morid S. 2013. Comparison of WEAP and MIKE BASIN models in water resources allocation (Case Study: Tlavar river). Journal of Water and Soil Conservation 20(1): 151-168. (In Persian with English abstract)
6. Cetinkaya C.P., and Gunacti M.C. 2018. Multi-criteria analysis of water allocation scenarios in a water scarce basin. Journal of Water Resources Management 32(8): 2867-2884.
7. Deylami A., Joolaie R., Rezaee A., and Keramatzadeh A. 2019. Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Yield, Gross Margin and Cropping Pattern of Gorgan County. Journal of Agricultural Economics 13(2): 137-160.
8. Doherty J. 2016. Model-Independent Parameter Estimation User Manual Part I: PEST. SENSAN and Global Optimisers, PEST Manual, Watermark Numerical Computing, Brisbane, Australia.
9. Esteve P., Varela-Ortega C., Blanco-Gutiérrez I., and Downing T.E. 2015. A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture. Journal of Ecological Economics 120: 49-58.
10. Farajzadeh M., Madani K., Massah A.R., and Davtalab R. 2014. Climate change effects on reliability of water delivery in downstream of Karkheh river basin and its adaptation strategies. Journal of Water and Soil Resources Conservation 3(3): 49-63. (In Persian with English abstract)
11. Forni L.G., Medellín-Azuara J., Tansey M., Young C., Purkey D., and Howitt R. 2016. Integrating complex economic and hydrologic planning models: An application for drought under climate change analysis. Water Resources and Economics 16: 15-27.
12. Ghobadi Y., Pradhan B., Shafri H.Z.M., and Kabiri K. 2015. Assessment of spatial relationship between land surface temperature and landuse/cover retrieval from multi-temporal remote sensing data in South Karkheh Sub-basin, Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 8(1): 525-537.
13. Hoseini S.S., Nazari M.R., and Araghinejad S. 2013. Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 44(1): 1-16. (In Persian with English abstract)
14. Howitt R.E. 1995. A calibration method for agricultural economic production models. Journal of Agricultural Economics 46(2): 147-159.
15. Howitt R.E. 2005. Agricultural and environmental policy models: Calibration, estimation and optimization. Davis: University of California, Davis. Available online at http://www. agecon. ucdavis. edu/people/faculty/facultydocs/howitt/master. pdf.
16. Iglesias A., and Garrote L. 2015. Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe. Agricultural Water Management 155: 113-124.
17. Iran Water & Power Resources Development Company, 1389. Systematic Studies of Karkheh River Basin .Water Resources Planning Studies, Volume 5. (In Persian)
18. Jabloun M., and Sahli A. 2012. WEAP-MABIA tutorial: a collection of stand-alone chapters to aid in learning the WEAP-MABIA module. Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany.
19. Jamali S., Abrishamchi A., Marino M.A., and Abbasnia A. 2012. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Karkheh Basin, Iran. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management (166(2): 93-104). Thomas Telford Ltd.
20. Kermanshahi S., Davari K., Hasheminia S.M., Farid Hosseini A., and Ansari H. 2013. Using the WEAP Model to Assess the Impact of Irrigation Water Use Management on Water Resources of Neyshabour Plane. Journal of Water and Soil 27(3): 495-505. (In Persian with English abstract)
21. Khalilian S., Shemshadi K., Mortazavi S.A., and Ahmadian M. 2014. Investigating Welfare Effect of Climate Change on the Wheat Products in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 28(3): 292-300. (In Persian with English abstract)
22. Khosravi M., Esmaelnejad M., and Nazaripour H. 2010. Climate Change and effects on water resource of Middle East. 4^th International Congress of the Islamic World Geographers, 4 April. 2010. Zahedan, Iran. (in Persian with English abstract)
23. Kouzegaran S., and Mousavi Baygi M. 2015. Investigation of meteorological extreme event in the North-East of Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 29(3): 750-764.
24. Mahmoodi A., and Parhizkari A. 2018. Economic Analysis of the Climate Change Impacts on Products Yield, Cropping Pattern and Farmer's Gross Margin (Case Study: Qazvin Plain). Growth and Development of Rural & Agricultural Economics 2(2): 25-40. (In Persian with English abstract)
25. Mehta V.K., Haden V.R., Joyce B.A., Purkey D.R., and Jackson L.E. 2013. Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California. Journal of Agricultural Water Management 117: 70-82.
26. Molden D., Oweis T.Y., Pasquale S., Kijne J.W., Hanjra M.A., Bindraban P.S., and Hachum A. 2007. Pathways for increasing agricultural water productivity (No. 612-2016-40552).
27. Mozaffari M.M., Parhizkari A., Hoseini Khodadadi M., and Parhizkari R. 2015. Economic Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change Induced by Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Agricultural Productions and Available Water Resources (Case Study: Down Lands of the Taleghan Dam). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 29(1): 68-85. (In Persian with English abstract)
28. Ngo L.A., Masih I., Jiang Y., and Douven W. 2018. Impact of reservoir operation and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Sesan and Srepok Rivers in the Lower Mekong Basin. Journal of Climatic Change 149(1): 107-119.
29. Nigussie Y., van der Werf E., Zhu X., Simane B., and van Ierland E.C. 2018. Evaluation of climate change adaptation alternatives for smallholder farmers in the Upper Blue-Nile Basin. Journal of Ecological Economics 151: 142-150.
30. Paris Q., and Howitt R.E. 1998. An analysis of ill-posed production problems using Maximum Entropy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80 (1): 124-138.
31. Roham O., and Dabbert S. 2003. Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional production Models: an Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(1): 254-265.
32. Safavi H.R., and Gol Mohammadi M.H. 2016. Evaluating the Water Resource Systems Performance Using Fuzzy Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 12(1): 68-83. (In Persian with English abstract)
33. Sagardoy J.A. 2000. Performance analysis of on-demand pressurized irrigation systems (No. 59). Food and Agriculture Organization.
34. Sarzaeim P., Bozorg-Haddad O., Fallah-Mehdipour E., and Loáiciga H.A. 2017. Climate change outlook for water resources management in a semiarid river basin: the effect of the environmental water demand. Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences 76(14): 498.
35. Shahraki J., Sardar Shahraki A., and Hashemi Monfared S.A. 2018. Economic impact assessment of water resources management scenarios in Pishin catchment. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 10(40): 59-84. (In Persian with English abstract)
36. Sieber J., Swartz C., and Huber-Lee A.H. 2005. Water evaluation and planning system (WEAP): User guide. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston.
37. Wang J. 2010. Food security, food prices and climate change in China: A dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia 1: 321-324.
38. Zahraei B. 2015.Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Surface Runoffs in Karkheh River Basin. Research project, College of Engineering, University of Tehran. (In Persian with English abstract)