اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 7، دوره 34، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 48، تابستان 1399، صفحه 223-238  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v34i2.86135

نویسندگان

زهرا ملکوتی خواه؛ زکریا فرج زاده

دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

شواهد نشان می‌‌دهد در دهه‌‌های آینده، تغییر اقلیم به‌‌ویژه کشورهای درحال‌‌توسعه را با پیامدهای زیان‌‌بار مواجه خواهد نمود. با توجه به اهمیت پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم، این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل اثر این پدیده بر رشد اقتصادی ایران صورت گرفت. برای این منظور از الگوی رشد نئوکلاسیک سولو-سوان استفاده گردید. به­منظور دست‌‌یابی به هدف مطالعه از داده‌‌های سری-زمانی دوره 1395-1350 استفاده شد. متغیر بیانگر تغییر اقلیم در قالب تابع خسارت یا زیان در مدل رشد وارد شد که در آن خسارت تابعی از درجه حرارت می‌‌باشد. در مدل رشد افزون بر سرمایه فیزیکی انواع دیگر سرمایه شامل سرمایه انسانی، اجتماعی و زیست‌‌محیطی نیز لحاظ شد. نتایج نشان داد در ازاء یک درجه سانتی­گراد افزایش میانگین دما، انتظار می‌‌رود تولید به میزان 6/6-5 درصد کاهش یابد. کشش تولید نسبت به سرمایه فیزیکی به‌‌عنوان مهم‌‌ترین متغیر مساعدت‌‌کننده به تولید عمدتاً در حدود 16/0-08/0 محاسبه شد. دامنه متناظر برای سرمایه انسانی 06/0-02/0 و برای سرمایه اجتماعی 08/0-03/0 به‌‌دست آمد، اما مساعدت سرمایه زیست‌‌محیطی چندان حایز اهمیت نبود. اثر سرمایه‌‌گذاری خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی فاقد اهمیت آماری بود اما اثر مثبت شاخص بازبودن تجارت احراز گردید.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ دما؛ سرمایه؛ مدل رشد سولو

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