تأثیر تغییر اقلیم برتولید سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در منطقه فریدون‌شهر اصفهان I- رشد و نمو

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 6، دوره 9، شماره 4، زمستان 1396، صفحه 1117-1135  

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v9i4.53529

نویسندگان

ظهراب اداوی ¹؛ محمودرضا تدین²

¹دانشگاه پیام نور

²دانشگاه شهرکرد

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه شبیه‌سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل فنولوژیکی، شاخص سطح برگ، عملکرد زیست‌توده و غده سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده منطقه فریدون‌شهر اصفهان بود. برای این منظور پیش بینی دو مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 و IPCM4 تحت سه سناریوی A1B، B1 و A2 در سال‌های 2030، 2060 و 2090 به‌کار گرفته شد. برای شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای اقلیمی از مدل LARS-WG و برای شبیه‌سازی مراحل رشد سیب‌زمینی از مدل SUBSTOR-Potato و نرم‌افزار DSSAT استفاده گردید. نتایج ارزیابی مدل SUBSTOR-potato نشان داد مدل برآورد مناسبی (RMSE≤10) برای پیش‌بینی صفات عملکرد غده، حداکثر شاخص سطح برگ، روز تا گلدهی و روز تا رسیدگی فیزیولوژیک گیاه سیب‌زمینی در شرایط آب و هوایی فریدون‌شهر دارا می‌باشد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد که در تمام سناریوهای مورد بررسی، رشد و نمو سیب-زمینی تحت تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم در آینده قرار خواهد گرفت و عملکرد آن نسبت به سال مبنا کاهش خواهد یافت. به‌طوری‌که بیشترین کاهش عملکرد غده در سناریوی A2 و در سال 2090 برای هر دو مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 و IPCM4 شبیه‌سازی شد. میزان کاهش عملکرد غده در سناریوی B1 نسبت به دو سناریوی دیگر کمتر بود. گیاه سیب‌زمینی در سناریوی A2 در مقایسه با دو سناریوی دیگر از شاخص سطح برگ کمتری برخوردار بود. همچنین طول مرحله کاشت تا گلدهی و مدت زمان رسیدگی سیب‌زمینی در منطقه فریدون‌شهر در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده نسبت به شرایط فعلی کاهش خواهد یافت که دلیل اصلی این کاهش، افزایش درجه حرارت (بسته به سناریوهای مختلف بین 1/1 تا 4/5 درجه سانتی‌گراد) و در نتیجه افزایش سرعت رشد گیاه در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سناریوهای انتشار؛ شبیه‌سازی عملکرد؛ مدل LARS-WG؛ مراحل فنولوژیکی

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