ارزیابی مدل CliPest در شبیه سازی رقابت گندم (Aestivum Triticum L.) و یولاف وحشی (Avena Ludoviciana L.) در کرمانشاه

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 7، دوره 10، شماره 1، بهار 1397، صفحه 248-266  

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v10i1.60082

نویسندگان

اشکان جلیلیان¹؛ فرزاد مندنی ¹؛ محمود خرمی وفا¹؛ علیرضا باقری²

¹دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه

²دانشگاه رازی

چکیده

مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی گیاهان زراعی، ابزار مفیدی در تعیین بهینه‌ترین راهبرد مدیریت زراعی و پایداری تولید در بوم‌نظام‌های کشاورزی به شمار می-آیند. بنابراین با هدف واسنجی و ارزیابی مدل CliPest در شرایط آب و هوایی کرمانشاه، یک آزمایش مزرعه‌ای در قالب طرح بلوک‌های کامل تصادفی با چهار تکرار و یک آزمایش گلخانه‌ای در قالب طرح کاملاً تصادفی با سه تکرار در سال زراعی 94-1393 در پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه رازی اجرا گردید. نتایج نشان داد که میزان nRMSE برای عملکرد وزن خشک کل و عملکرد دانه گندم (Aestivum Triticum L.) به‌ترتیب، 7/7 و 1/3 درصد میانگین مشاهده شده‌ها و برای وزن خشک کل یولاف وحشی (Avena Ludoviciana L.) نیز به‌ترتیب، 4/23 درصد میانگین مشاهده شده-ها بود. نتایج ارزیابی مدل CliPest نیز نشان داد که میزان nRMSE برای مراحل نموی، عملکرد وزن خشک کل، عملکرد دانه، درصد کاهش عملکرد وزن خشک و عملکرد دانه گندم به‌علت خسارت یولاف وحشی به‌ترتیب، 4/2، 3/24، 8/4، 7/15 و 6/11 درصد میانگین مشاهده شده‌ها بود. همچنین نتایج شاخص توافق ویلموت و برازش رگرسیون خطی بین داده‌های مشاهده شده و شبیه‌سازی شده و مقایسه آن با خط 1:1 نیز نشان داد که مدل قادر است به‌ترتیب تا بیش از 90 و 95 درصد از تغییرات مشاهده شده صفات مورد بررسی را شبیه‌سازی کند. نتایج نشان داد که مدل CliPest دقت قابل قبولی برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات عملکـرد گنـدم پـاییزه در شـرایط رقابت با علف هرز یـولاف وحشـی داشـت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تخصیص مواد فتوسنتزی؛ رقابت علف های هرز؛ شبیه سازی رشد گیاهان زراعی؛ واسنجی

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