برآورد و پهنه‌بندی تاریخ مناسب کشت گندم دیم(Triticum aestivum L.) بر اساس سطوح مختلف احتمال وقوع بارش پاییزه در استان گلستان

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 14، دوره 11، شماره 1، تیر 1398، صفحه 217-229   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v11i1.72873

نویسندگان

کامی کابوسی^{* 1}؛ عثمان مجیدی²

¹دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد گرگان

²اداره کل هواشناسی استان گلستان

چکیده

با توجه به وابستگی شدید تاریخ مناسب گندم دیم  (Triticum aestivum L.)به وقوع بارش­های پاییزه و نوسان آن در سال­های مختلف، پژوهش حاضر با هدف برآورد تاریخ مناسب کشت گندم دیم در استان گلستان با استفاده از داده­های بارش روزانه 57 ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره آماری مشترک 1395-1370 در پنج سطح احتمال وقوع 25، 50، 75، 85 و 95 درصد انجام شد. تاریخ کشت بر اساس وقوع اولین بارش برابر و بیشتر از 25 میلی­متر طی یک دوره 10 روزه متوالی در ماه آذر انتخاب گردید. به منظور بررسی صحت نتایج و اعتبارسنجی نتایج، از یافته­های پژوهش­های مختلف که در مقیاس مزرعه در استان گلستان انجام شده بود، استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که تاریخ مناسب کشت گندم دیم در نیمه جنوبی استان زودتر از نیمه شمالی می­باشد. سطح احتمال بر تاریخ کشت تأثیر معنی­دار داشت، ولی اثر ایستگاه بر آن معنی­دار نبود. اختلاف آماری بین تمام سطوح احتمال وقوع معنی­دار بود به طوری‌که سطح احتمال 25 و 95 درصد به ترتیب نشان‌دهنده زودترین و دیرترین تاریخ مناسب کشت گندم در استان گلستان بود. در ایستگاه­های مختلف استان، تاریخ کشت مناسب گندم دیم با احتمال وقوع 25 درصد بین اول تا 10 آذر، با احتمال وقوع 50 درصد بین اول تا 22 آذر، با احتمال وقوع 75 درصد بین 3 آذر تا 13 دی، با احتمال وقوع 85 درصد بین 11 آذر تا 25 دی و با احتمال وقوع 95 درصد بین 21 آذر تا 30 دی قرار داشت. با افزایش سطح احتمال پنجره تاریخ کشت در سطح استان طولانی­تر گردید به گونه­ای که اختلاف تاریخ کشت مناطق مختلف استان در سطح احتمال 25 درصد 10 روز و در سطح احتمال 95 درصد 40 روز ه دست آمد. بر اساس نتایج، کاهش اندک ریسک زراعت (افزایش احتمال وقوع بارش مناسب از 25 به 50 درصد) با تأخیر تاریخ کشت گندم به مدت چند روز امکان­پذیر است در حالی است که کاهش بیشتر ریسک زراعت (افزایش احتمال وقوع بارش مناسب به 75، 85 و 95 درصد) از طریق تأخیر تاریخ کشت به میزان چند دهه مقدور خواهد بود. صحت­سنجی و اعتبارسنجی نتایج پژوهش حاضر با نتایج پژوهش­های مزرعه­ای و میدانی، ضمن تائید دقت قابل قبول پیش­بینی تاریخ مناسب کشت بر اساس معیار معرفی شده، نشان داد که کشاورزان استان با درک صحیح از نقش بارش پاییزه در استقرار بوته و عملکرد محصول، تاریخ کشت گندم را با سطح احتمال بالایی درست انتخاب می­نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پنجره کشت؛ تاخیر در کشت؛ ریسک

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