Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in Gourganroud River Basin

آب و خاک

Article 8, Volume 27, Issue 3, July 2013, Pages 537-547   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jsw.v0i0.26051

Authors

M. Azari^* ; Hamid Reza Moradi; B. Saghafian; M. Faramarzi

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges that all living matters on the Earth needs to face. A warmer climate will accelerate the hydrologic cycle, altering rainfall, magnitude and timing of runoff.Iran might become one of the most vulnerable areas in the world regarding climate change. To study the effects of climatic variations, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was implemented to simulate the hydrologic regime on Gorganroud basin. The SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP program was used for parameter optimization using the monthly river discharge. The climatechange scenarios were constructed using outcomes of three General Circulation Models (CGCM2, HadCM3 and SCIRO)for low and high levels of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1F1 and B1). The calibration andvalidation results of the SWAT model agreedwell with the observed data. The study result showed that Compared with the present climate, the climate models predicted a −3.2% to -6.5% changes in annual precipitation, 3 to 5.7°C rises in maximum temperature, and 2.8 to 5.2°C rises in minimum temperature. SWAT predicted a −0.4% to -7.7% changefor runoff, −5.2% to -13% change for soil water content, 5.3% to 10.2% change for water yield, and -1.6% to -3.6% decrease for evapotranspiration during 2010–2039 under all climate scenarios.These results highlight the strong impact of climate change in regional water resources and reflect the importance of incorporating these analysis into adaptive management in the future watershed management strategies.

Keywords

Climate change; Hydrological Impacts Assessment; SWAT; Gourganroud