بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر کشاورزی ایران: 1- پیش‌‎بینی وضعیت اگروکلیماتیک آینده

پژوهشهای زراعی ایران

مقاله 1، دوره 13، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 40، دی 1394، صفحه 651-664   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/gsc.v13i4.51156

نویسندگان

علیرضا کوچکی^{* 1}؛ مهدی نصیری محلاتی¹؛ لیلا جعفری²

¹دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشگاه هرمزگان

چکیده

گرمایش جهانی و پی‌آمدهای ناشی از آن بسیاری از متغیرهای اقلیمی مؤثر در رشد و نمو گیاهان زراعی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد و پاسخ گیاهان به این امر تابع شدت و الگوی تغییرات می‌باشد. در این مطالعه تأثیر تغییر جهانی اقلیم بر شاخص‌های اقلیمی کشاورزی ایران برای سال 2050 میلادی (1430 شمسی) براساس سناریوی استاندارد IPCC توسط دو مدل گردش عمومی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که میانگین دمای سالانه مناطق مختلف کشور تا سال هدف بین 5/3 تا 5/4 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش می‌یابد در حالی‌که میانگین بارش سالانه بین 7 تا 14 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. به‌علاوه این تغییرات از غرب به شرق و از شمال به جنوب کشور شدیدتر خواهد بود. افزایش دما باعث طولانی‌تر شدن فصل رشد به دلیل افزایش تعداد روزهای بدون یخبندان می‌شود. البته کاهش بارش طول فصل خشک را از حدود 20 روز در مناطق غربی تا بیش از 30 روز در جنوب کشور افزایش خواهد داد که این امر به‌ویژه در مناطق کشت دیم از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار است. افزایش دما همچنین میزان تبخیر و تعرق بالقوه سالانه را در سال هدف بین 18 تا 30 درصد افزایش می‌دهد و در نتیجه تفاوت بین میزان بارش و تبخیر و تعرق بالقوه یا شاخص کمبود بارش به‌طور قابل توجهی افزایش می‌یابد که عمدتاً به دلیل افزایش میزان تبخیر و تعرق خواهد بود. با وجودی‌که پی‌آمدهای تغییر اقلیم بر شاخص‌های اگروکلیماتیک تمامی مناطق کشور مؤثر می‌باشد، ولی نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که بیشترین اثرات منفی به‌ترتیب در جنوب، شرق و مرکز کشور بروز کرده و کمترین اثرات در شمال و شرق کشور ظاهر خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تبخیر و تعرق؛ شاخص کمبود بارش؛ طول دوره خشکی؛ طول فصل رشد؛ گرمایش جهانی

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